铁矿周报：稳经济政策支撑铁矿震荡走势-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The demand side shows that the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.56%, a 0.28 percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.70 percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons from the previous week but an increase of 13.90 tons from the same period last year [2]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil last week was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [2]. - Overall, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. With stable downstream steel purchases supporting steel mill operations and high - level hot metal production on the demand side, and the State Council deploying a package of measures to stabilize the economy, enhancing the expectation of policy easing, it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3076 | - 55 | - 1.76 | 7376676 | 3023524 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3181 | - 61 | - 1.88 | 2551563 | 1360193 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 699.0 | - 9.0 | - 1.27 | 1978390 | 566874 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 952.5 | 60.0 | 6.72 | 2128415 | 501104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1552.5 | 30.5 | 2.00 | 126152 | 47129 | Yuan/ton | [3] Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted last week. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 614 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 141 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 54.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.50 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 tons but a year - on - year increase of 13.90 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.763 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The global iron ore shipment volume this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [6]. Industry News - On April 13, the People's Bank of China announced the financial data for March. At the end of March 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, the same as the previous month. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. In terms of social financing, at the end of March 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year; the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.5% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the whole of last year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points faster; and fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point faster [10]. - According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Among them, exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%; imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [10]. - Rio Tinto reported that in the first quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of its Pilbara operations was 69.8 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The iron ore shipment volume of its Pilbara operations in the first quarter was 70.7 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - Vale reported that in the first quarter of 2025, its total iron ore production was 67.664 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%; the total iron ore sales volume was 66.141 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 18.5% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipment volume of iron ore, steel products, etc., including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production and inventory, and iron ore shipment and arrival volume [8][11][14].