Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to close at 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the palm oil 05 contract fell 166 to close at 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 14 to close at 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 115 to close at 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to close at 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the ICE canola active contract rose 8.3 to close at 676 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 1.24% [3][7]. - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil trading volume has increased significantly and shows good resistance to decline. Rapeseed oil still faces supply pressure due to high inventory, but there is an expectation of tightened imports in the medium to long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand in the domestic market. As the producing areas enter the production - increasing cycle, inventory may enter an accumulation cycle. Facing the impact of tariff policies, the governments of Malaysia and Indonesia may lower export prices, causing the spot quotes in the producing areas to decline and the Malaysian palm oil to continue to weaken. In the short term, US soybean oil is oscillating strongly due to factors such as biodiesel and the rebound of US soybeans. Canadian canola continues to rise this week supported by low inventory and good crushing demand [4][7]. - The impact of tariff policies is gradually being digested by the market. The game among countries may enter a long - cycle process. The US stock market is in an oscillating adjustment process, and the US dollar index is oscillating weakly. With supply concerns and the decline in OPEC+ production - increasing expectations, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, as the producing areas enter the production - increasing period and are affected by tariffs on exports, the producing areas may lower export prices, and spot quotes continue to decline. The import profit of demand countries has improved, and countries such as India have increased their ship purchases, which may limit the decline. Overall, palm oil may oscillate at a low level in the short term. If export demand fails to meet expectations, it may weaken in the medium term [4][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 166 to 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 14 to 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell 115 to 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 129 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 150 to 9,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.62%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 50 to 8,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 20 to 9,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil has good anti - decline ability with increased trading volume. Rapeseed oil has supply pressure due to high inventory but may see tightened imports in the long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand domestically, and the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle with possible inventory accumulation. The Malaysian and Indonesian governments may lower export prices, causing the Malaysian palm oil to weaken. US soybean oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and Canadian canola continues to rise [7]. - From April 1 - 15, 2025, in Malaysia, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. Different shipping survey agencies showed that the export volume of palm oil products from April 1 - 15, 2025, increased compared with the same period last month, with increases ranging from 7.05% to 13.55% [8][9]. - Malaysia will keep the export tax on crude palm oil in May at 10% and lower the reference price. The simplified EUDR may not fully benefit palm oil - producing countries. Indonesian palm oil producers hope the government will cut export tariffs to the US [9]. - As of the week of April 11, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.837 million tons, a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 97,300 tons, palm oil inventory decreased by 2,300 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory increased by 15,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of April 18, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 56,500 tons, compared with 39,580 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 153 tons, compared with 853 tons in the previous week [10]. 3. Industry News - In 2024, Indonesia exported 680,000 tons of palm oil to Russia, an increase of about 13% compared with 2023. The goal is to export 1 million tons in the future, and the exported palm oil is mainly refined [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Jakarta commissioner predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025/26 will increase to 47 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with 2024/25. The export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 24 million tons, and the ending inventory will increase from 4.9 million tons in 2024/25 to 5.29 million tons [11]. - Malaysia is optimistic and plans to adjust its palm oil export strategy to deal with new US tariff measures. The current export tariff to the US is 10% with a 90 - day suspension period. The expected export value to the US this year is 21 billion ringgit, with palm oil products contributing 4.9 billion ringgit [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [14][15][16]
产地进入增产季，棕榈油低位震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-04-21 04:39