中国电力部门何时能够碳达峰？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power industry is "Bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese power industry is undergoing dual transformations of clean - energy transition and restructuring of supply - demand structure. The proportion of non - fossil energy generation capacity and power generation is increasing, but coal - fired power remains crucial in the short term. On the demand side, power consumption shows characteristics of slowing growth and structural differentiation. Power supply - demand balance may become the norm, and the construction of a new power system needs to be accelerated. The carbon peak time of the power sector depends on the growth rate of wind and solar power generation, with different peak times and values under optimistic and conservative scenarios [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Power Industry Supply - Demand Pattern - Power Consumption Pattern: It is shifting from "quantity expansion" to "quality restructuring". There are four structural characteristics on the demand side: kinetic energy conversion driven by industrial upgrading, a revolution in form triggered by the digital economy, consumption upgrading spurred by new urbanization, and rigid demand increments contributed by power substitution. High - tech and equipment manufacturing, digital economy - related industries, and household consumption are the main drivers of power demand growth [17][18][27] - Power Supply: The power system is facing challenges such as new - energy consumption, system flexibility reshaping, and cross - regional resource allocation. Wind and solar power are driving the low - carbon transformation of the power structure, but they also face challenges in consumption and system regulation. The construction of power transmission projects is important for cross - regional resource allocation, but there are still problems in transmission efficiency, technology coordination, and market mechanisms. Coal - fired power, pumped - storage power, and new - type energy storage are important means of system regulation [42][43][54] - Market - based Transactions: The power market has formed a multi - level system with medium - and long - term transactions as the mainstay, supplemented by spot - market pilots, auxiliary - service markets, and green - power trading. The scale of market - based trading electricity is increasing, but there are still provincial barriers, and the trading scale of the spot market is relatively small. The full entry of new - energy power into the market will further optimize power - resource allocation [78] 3.2 When Can China's Power Sector Reach Carbon Peak? - Power Demand Forecast: By 2030, the total social power consumption is expected to reach 13.5 trillion kWh. The power consumption of the primary industry will maintain an annual growth rate of over 6%, mainly driven by the mechanization of animal husbandry. The secondary - industry power consumption will grow at an annual rate of about 3% - 4%, with high - tech and equipment manufacturing leading the growth. The tertiary - industry power consumption will grow at an annual rate of about 8% - 9%, mainly driven by the growth of new - energy vehicle charging and other factors. The power consumption of urban and rural residents will grow at an annual rate of 5% - 8%, mainly due to consumption upgrading and energy substitution [90][105][120] - Power Supply Structure Forecast: In the long term, clean energy, especially wind and solar power, will become the main sources of power generation. Coal - fired power will gradually be phased out or converted into emergency backup power. By 2030, the installed capacity of wind power is expected to reach 9 - 11 billion kilowatts, and that of solar power is expected to reach 18 - 25 billion kilowatts under different scenarios. The installed capacity of hydropower will reach about 4.3 billion kilowatts, and the power generation will reach 1.7 trillion kWh. The installed capacity of coal - fired power is expected to peak around 2030, and its function will gradually transform [137][138][154] - Thermal - Power Carbon - Emission Intensity Forecast: By 2030, the carbon - emission intensity of coal - fired power is expected to drop to about 770 g/kWh, and that of gas - fired power is expected to drop to about 310 g/kWh. Without considering the heating part, under the conservative scenario of wind and solar power growth, the total carbon emissions of the power sector will peak after 2030, with a peak value exceeding 4.8 billion tons; under the optimistic scenario, it will peak in 2025, with a peak value of about 4.6 billion tons [3]