特朗普及关税系列研究（三）：美国供需视角看关税“棋局”新解

Group 1: Demand Insights - U.S. consumer behavior changes are relatively slow, with personal consumption contribution remaining stable around 2% over decades[2] - Historical data shows that during economic recessions, essential consumption tends to increase while discretionary spending decreases, indicating a shift in consumer priorities[20] - The average consumption propensity has generally increased from 1999 to 2013, despite economic downturns, reflecting a strong consumer inertia[22] Group 2: Supply Challenges - The scale and efficiency of Chinese manufacturing are difficult to replace, making it a critical factor in U.S. supply chains[3] - The U.S. faces challenges in rebuilding its manufacturing base, with potential paths including the development of a "pro-American" supply chain or significant subsidies for domestic manufacturers[36] - The "AI + manufacturing" transformation in the U.S. is complex and faces significant hurdles, particularly in terms of implementation and efficiency[44] Group 3: Economic Implications - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to significant market volatility, primarily reflecting changes in expectations rather than fundamental economic shifts[2] - If the U.S. economy does not enter a recession, the resilience of consumer demand may lead to a "stagflation-like" impact on trade and supply structures[36] - In a recession scenario, consumer purchasing power may decline, complicating efforts to fill supply gaps left by China and other countries[36] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include escalating global geopolitical conflicts, renewed inflationary pressures in the U.S., and uncontrolled government debt issues[4]