尿素周报：现货成交重心下移-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea supply is expected to increase with the planned resumption of production by 3 parking enterprises and no planned maintenance by enterprises in the coming week. The weekly average daily output is estimated to rise from 19.86 million tons to 20.00 million tons [6]. - Agricultural demand for urea continues to advance, with fertilizer use in the rice - growing regions and later in the Northeast region starting successively. However, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate has declined slightly, and the consumption of urea for thermal power denitration has decreased with the rise in temperature [6]. - Urea enterprise inventory has been rising due to the weakening of downstream industrial demand and the short - term gap in agricultural demand. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 90.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.25 million tons (+8.70%) [6]. - Urea prices are expected to stabilize, and production profits are expected to recover. For example, the production profit of urea factories using the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is expected to increase from 250 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton [6]. - In the futures market, after the main contract shifted from UR05 to UR09, the price of the 09 contract was pressured by short - side active position - increasing. Looking ahead, as production increases, supply will be more abundant, and demand is expected to increase with the arrival of the peak season for summer corn fertilizer production in the Huanghuaihai region. However, the view of demand over - consumption in the market may suppress the 09 contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - Domestic urea spot prices are presented for different regions such as Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [9][10]. - International urea prices and spreads are shown, including FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the port - collection profit of small - particle urea in Shandong factories and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory port - collection from 2021 - 2025 [12][13]. - Unit nitrogen element prices and spreads are provided, including the price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, and between urea and ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [15][16]. - Phosphorus and potassium fertilizer prices are given, including the prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. - Urea futures basis and inter - month spreads are presented, including the price of the urea futures 05 contract, its basis, and the 5 - 9 spread from 2020 - 2025 [21][22][23] 3.2 Urea Supply - Domestic urea production data is provided, including weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025 [27][28]. - Coal prices and urea profits are shown, including the prices of anthracite lump and bituminous coal, as well as the production profits of fixed - bed process in Shanxi and new - process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 [29][30]. - Urea factory inventory and apparent consumption data are presented, including enterprise inventory, enterprise - perspective daily average apparent consumption, enterprise urea order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [32][33] 3.3 Urea Demand - Compound fertilizer data is provided, including the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import volume, export volume, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025 [37][38]. - Compound fertilizer upstream data is presented, including the weekly output of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [39][40]. - Another set of compound fertilizer upstream data shows the operating rate of domestic potassium fertilizer, port potassium fertilizer inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - Melamine data is provided, including weekly output, price, price - to - urea ratio, and domestic net retention volume from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - Urea export data is presented, including monthly export volume and cumulative export volume from 2021 - 2025 [48][49] 3.4 Urea Inventory - Urea inventory data is provided, including enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [50][51]