高盛：中国 3 月 70 个大中城市新建商品住宅平均价格进一步下跌

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decrease of 2.2% month-over-month annualized in March, following a decline of 2.6% in February [2][8]. Core Insights - The divergence in property prices between top-tier and lower-tier cities continues, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a sequential increase of 0.5% month-over-month annualized in March, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities saw declines of 1.5% and 4.2% respectively [8][14]. - Year-on-year changes in the weighted average new home prices fell to -4.5% in March from -4.8% in February, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market despite easing policies [8][12]. - The report highlights that secondary market data suggests price declines of 5%-15% over the past year, further emphasizing the struggles faced by the property sector [8][12]. Summary by Sections Primary Market Performance - The weighted average property price in the primary market decreased by 2.2% month-over-month annualized in March, with a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [2][8]. - The number of cities with sequentially higher property prices increased in both primary and secondary markets in March, indicating some localized recovery [8][15]. Tier Classification - Tier-1 cities showed resilience with a 0.5% increase in property prices, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities faced declines of 1.5% and 4.2% respectively [8][14]. - The report suggests that lower-tier cities are facing stronger headwinds due to weaker growth fundamentals and oversupply issues compared to top-tier cities [8][12]. Policy and Market Outlook - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts since September, which have been more effective in stabilizing secondary home prices than previous measures [12]. - Continued housing easing measures are expected to stabilize home prices and secure the delivery of pre-sold homes, including potential cuts to mortgage rates and expanded bank lending [12][19].