高盛：中国医疗服务与器械行业 - 2024 财年总结 - 监测 2025 财年手术量恢复和报销管控情况

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weigao, AK Medical, and AngelAlign, while holding a "Neutral" rating for Jinxin and Tigermed [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of surgical volumes in 2025, with expectations of manageable impacts from recent regulatory changes and tariff adjustments [1][4]. - The focus is shifting towards internal operational management and shareholder returns, with companies emphasizing cash flow management and reducing capital expenditures [8][11]. Summary by Sections Surgical Volume and Regulatory Environment - Surgical volume is expected to trend positively in 2025, with many companies reporting improved sentiment at the start of the year [4]. - The impact of the Value-Based Pricing (VBP) is seen as manageable, with major players focusing on market share gains [4][7]. Company-Specific Developments - Weigao anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year in FY25, driven by new product ramp-ups [9]. - AK Medical's market share in Tier 1 hospitals has increased significantly, and the company expects continued growth in overseas markets [4][9]. - AngelAlign is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, with a projected 50% year-on-year increase in overseas case volumes [9][19]. Financial Guidance and Earnings Revisions - The report revises sales estimates downwards for several companies, with average changes of -1.6% to -2.2% for 2025-2027 and earnings estimates down by -13.3% to -16.7% [1][14]. - Gushengtang expects revenue growth to exceed 25% year-on-year in FY25, while Jinxin did not provide specific revenue guidance due to uncertainties [8][19]. Target Price Changes - Target prices have been adjusted for several companies, with Hygeia's target price set at HK$27.60, AngelAlign at HK$76.20, and Gushengtang at HK$46.00 [13][17][18].