高盛：中国2025 年第一季度消费者数据概览 - “对等” 关税前夕家庭消费增长有所改善

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Household disposable income grew by 5.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, slightly down from 5.6% in Q4 2024, while nominal consumption growth increased to 5.2% year-over-year from 4.5% in the previous quarter [3][4] - The labor market remained stable in Q1 2025, with urban unemployment rates increasing slightly, particularly in large cities [18][20] - The household savings rate decreased in Q1 2025, falling below pre-Covid trend levels, with estimated cumulative excess savings at RMB 3.0 trillion [32][39] - Consumer confidence showed a slight uptick but remained muted, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [46][48] Summary by Sections Income and Spending - Household disposable income growth decelerated to 5.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, while nominal consumption growth accelerated to 5.2% [3][4] - Per capita household consumption growth accelerated to +9.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized in Q1, driven by increased spending on food, clothing, education, culture, and entertainment [3][11] Employment - The labor market was stable, with urban unemployment rates slightly increasing after seasonal adjustments [18][20] - The migrant worker population grew marginally in Q1 2025, and several provinces increased minimum monthly wages, providing a boost to household disposable income [24][28] Household Savings - The household savings rate fell below pre-Covid trend levels, with excess savings estimated at RMB 3.0 trillion [32][39] - There are RMB 52 trillion in excess deposits in household bank deposits, with growth remaining stable [35][41] Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index increased slightly in early 2025, supported by consumption-boosting measures and improved property sales in top-tier cities [3][46] - Significant divergence in residential population changes was noted across provinces, with Guangdong seeing the most growth and Shandong the largest decline [49][50]