高盛：印度工业行业 - 关税不确定性下增长放缓；下调多项预期；

Investment Rating - The report downgrades L&T to Neutral from Buy due to expected capex deferral and maintains a Sell rating on Cummins and Thermax [2][47] - KEI is upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the risk-reward profile appears attractive [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a slowing growth environment for Indian Industrials amid tariff uncertainty, leading to deferrals in new factory capex and lower order inflows [1][7] - Revenue impacts of approximately 4-5% are anticipated for ports and logistics in FY26/27E, with a general expectation of lower earnings across the coverage [1][30] - The report revises earnings estimates downwards by an average of -1%/-4%/-6% for FY25E-FY27E [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Capital Expenditure and Growth - Capital expenditure in the private sector is expected to slow down due to tariff negotiations, leading to deferred projects and reduced order inflow for companies [7][30] - The report notes that while India’s GDP growth has historically been resilient to external shocks, the current tariff uncertainty may still impact container and port volumes [8][10] Sector-Specific Ratings - For ports and logistics, Adani Port is rated Buy, while Container Corp of India is rated Sell due to anticipated declines in container volumes [3][31] - In the cement sector, Ultratech is the only Buy recommendation, with concerns about excess capacity in 1HFY26 but resilience expected due to lower commodity prices [3][38] Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) - The report maintains a Sell rating on Dixon and a Neutral rating on Amber, citing that export opportunities will depend on global tariffs and costs [4][42] Cables and Wires - Cables and wire companies are expected to benefit from ongoing power and infrastructure capex in the near term, but growth may moderate in FY27E [2][31] - The report notes that India represents 2-3% of global C&W exports, indicating significant export potential [2] Overall Market Valuation - The report indicates that multiples for several capital goods and building material stocks have been cut to reflect a tougher operating environment [1][10] - The report suggests that while the Indian economy is relatively insulated from a US slowdown, the correlation between Indian equity markets and US markets remains strong [10][12]