Guoxin Securities·2025-04-21 06:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies. Recommendations include major thermal power enterprises such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][6]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to stabilize profitability in the renewable energy sector. Recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind power companies like Guangxi Energy and Funiu Co [3][6]. - The growth in installed capacity and power generation is expected to offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, with nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power projected to maintain stable profitability [3][6]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes in a global interest rate decline context, with recommendations for Changjiang Electric Power [3][6]. - The environmental sector, particularly water and waste incineration industries, is entering a mature phase with significant improvements in free cash flow. Recommended companies include China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, while the public utility index increased by 1.77%. The environmental index saw a slight increase of 0.04% [12][19]. - In March, the total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [13][49]. Important Policies and Events - The report notes that in March, the first industry electricity consumption was 10.6 billion kWh (up 9.9%), the second industry was 557.8 billion kWh (up 3.8%), and the third industry was 148.4 billion kWh (up 8.4%) [13][52]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International, Jin Kai New Energy, Shanghai Electric, Longyuan Power, and others are rated as "Outperform" with specific EPS and PE forecasts provided [6]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the decline in the import of mass spectrometers from the US, with a significant drop in both import value and quantity from 2020 to 2024 [15][17]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that the public utility and environmental sectors ranked 7th and 23rd respectively among 31 industry classifications in terms of performance [12][19]. Electricity Industry Data - The report provides detailed statistics on electricity generation, noting a 1.8% year-on-year increase in industrial electricity production in March, with specific growth rates for different energy sources [42][49]. Carbon Market Overview - The report includes insights into the domestic carbon market, highlighting recent price trends and trading volumes [86][87]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal remained stable, with the price at the port reported at 678 RMB/ton [99].