策略周专题（2025年4月第3期）：市场整固过程中关注哪些资产？

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown differentiation this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5%, while the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Index fell by 1.2%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a medium level historically since 2010 [1][11][12] - In April, the market typically enters a consolidation phase due to factors such as earnings disclosures and adjustments in analysts' profit expectations. Recent data indicates an increase in market uncertainty, as reflected in the rising fear index in the US stock market and the implied volatility of Hong Kong stock options [2][18][19] Group 2 - Three investment directions are highlighted during the market consolidation: domestic consumption, defensive assets, and self-sufficient industrial chains. The focus on domestic consumption is driven by recent domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [3][23][24] - Defensive assets, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, are recommended as they provide stability during uncertain market conditions. High-dividend sectors like coal, banking, and oil have shown resilience and are expected to perform well in uncertain times [32][33][36] - The self-sufficient industrial chain is emphasized due to the dual drive of the "dual circulation" development pattern and global industrial chain restructuring. This presents opportunities for domestic substitution in previously imported products, although challenges remain in achieving substantial progress [38][39] Group 3 - The market is expected to be in a consolidation phase, with a focus on defensive and cyclical styles. Historical data shows that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in April is only 40%, with a median monthly increase of -0.4% [4][39][44] - The upcoming Politburo meeting in April is anticipated to be a significant observation window for future policies, as current macroeconomic policies are expected to work in tandem to stimulate the economy [40][45] - Specific sectors to watch include defensive industries such as coal mining, electricity, and white goods, while cyclical sectors like livestock farming and oil refining are also highlighted for potential investment [46][48]