【宏观周报】国内一季度经济超预期增长，欧央行再降息25基点应对关税冲击-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that China's Q1 2025 economy exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to address tariff impacts. The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as tariffs, inflation, and employment affecting different countries' economies [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - GDP and Consumption: In Q1 2025, China's GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, growing 5.4% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year-on-year increase. In March, it grew 5.9% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than January - February [4][21]. - Investment: Q1 fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 10.3174 trillion yuan, a 4.2% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate development investment, it grew 6.3%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments increased by 5.8% and 9.1% respectively [4][21]. - Industrial Added Value: In Q1, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% [21]. - Exports and Imports: In March, exports increased by 13.5% in RMB terms and 12.4% in US dollars. Imports decreased by 3.5% in RMB and 4.3% in US dollars. The improvement in March exports may be related to pre - export, and the future foreign trade situation remains severe [5]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - Social Financing: In Q1 2025, the cumulative social financing increment was 15.18 trillion yuan, with 5.89 trillion yuan in March, a year - on - year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan. Loans and government bonds are the main factors supporting social financing [35]. - Credit: In Q1, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with 3.4 trillion yuan in March. The credit structure was further optimized, and the effective demand continued to recover [35]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - CPI: In March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, affecting the CPI decrease [41]. - PPI: In March, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in international commodity prices [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - US Inflation: In March 2025, the US CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.4% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, still higher than the Fed's target [48]. - US Employment: In March, the US non - farm sector added 228,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data was better than expected [49]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Exchange Rates: The RMB against the US dollar has shown two - way fluctuations. Recently, it was under pressure but remained within a range. Short - term risks include Fed policy divergence and geopolitical instability [56]. - Interest Rates: There are data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields, reflecting the current interest rate situation [58].