南华尿素产业链数据周报20250420-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract. The urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern before entering the agricultural off - season. The weak expectation of urea is gradually reflected in the 09 contract, and the price is expected to decline [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises had maintenance this cycle, including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical. Enterprises that resumed production this cycle were Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 906,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,500 tons, and the inventory of major ports in China was 112,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [4]. Demand - In the agricultural sector, the northern agriculture is in a stagnant stage, and the fertilizer use in the southern rice - growing areas is following up in stages. However, due to poor rainfall, the agricultural demand replenishment has slowed down. In the industrial sector, some small factories in the compound fertilizer industry face the problem of insufficient orders and shut down, but there is still phased demand. Compound fertilizer factories still need to replenish raw materials to fulfill previous orders. In the short term, the demand side will still follow up based on rigid demand [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1,800 (05 basis + 27), and in Henan was 1,790 (05 basis + 17). The spot trading of urea improved on Friday, and both spot and futures rebounded during the day. But the spot trading returned to light this weekend, and the grass - roots level in the northern region is still stagnant, with prices expected to decline [5]. Strategy - Before entering the agricultural off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. The current fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [5].