Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - PE (Polyethylene): The market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with a downward - trending price outlook. In the short - term, although cost support has improved due to the rebound in crude oil prices, the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the long - term, it is still in a capacity expansion cycle, and the center of crude oil prices is expected to continue to decline, so the market is bearish on rebounds. The recommended trading strategy is to hold a short position in the L - PP09 spread. The L2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7250] next week [3][4]. - PP (Polypropylene): The supply is relatively abundant, and the PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) device has not shown a significant reduction in load. Although the operation of PDH devices is under pressure due to tariff counter - sanctions, the supply has not significantly decreased for the time being. In the long - term, multiple sets of devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, so the medium - and long - term pattern is weak, and the market is bearish on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices. The PP2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7200] next week [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Review - PE: The view was that new devices were coming into operation one after another, and the market was expected to be weak and volatile. The supply was generally loose due to the commissioning of new devices and the restart of maintenance devices. The demand was weak as the peak season for agricultural films was ending, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid replenishment. The L2509 contract's price center continued to move down this week, with the price fluctuating in the range of [7106 - 7272]. The supply was abundant due to profit restoration, and the weekly output increased for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The operating rate of agricultural films declined for three consecutive weeks. Although the cost support improved due to the rebound in crude oil prices, the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand led to a decline in both futures and spot prices [3]. - PP: The view was that the PDH device had not shown a significant reduction in load, and the supply was sufficient. Although the operation of PDH devices was under pressure due to tariff counter - sanctions, the supply had not significantly decreased for the time being. The profit of oil - based and coal - based enterprises had improved, and the upstream supply was still abundant. The profit still had room for short - selling. The PP2509 contract's price center moved down this week, with the price fluctuating in the range of [7088 - 7215]. The market fluctuated mainly following the commodity sentiment, with both supply and demand decreasing and the inventory of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream enterprises decreasing marginally [6]. Next Week's Outlook - PE: The supply will remain loose as new devices are coming into operation and existing devices are operating at a high rate. Although there is an expectation of supply reduction due to counter - sanctions, the pressure of inventory accumulation will gradually increase as demand weakens. The L2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7250]. The strategy of holding a short position in the L - PP09 spread should be continued [4]. - PP: Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices, and the market is bearish on rebounds. Multiple devices are planned for maintenance and restart next week, and the planned maintenance loss of polypropylene is expected to increase. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is expected to decline to around 76.5%. The L2505 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7200] [7]. PE Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Capacity: The effective capacity will gradually increase in 2025, with a total of 208 tons of new capacity put into operation in the first quarter. In April, Shandong New Era's 70 - ton capacity was commissioned, and ExxonMobil's 50 - ton LLDPE2 line is planned to start operation at the end of the month [8][9][10]. - Production and Consumption: The monthly output and apparent consumption will fluctuate throughout the year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and apparent consumption shows an upward trend, but the growth rate varies in different months [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of petrochemical plants, enterprises, and the futures market shows a certain degree of fluctuation, with both increases and decreases [9]. PP Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Capacity: New capacity will be gradually put into operation in 2025, such as Inner Mongolia Baofeng's 50 - ton capacity in January and its third - line new capacity in March. In April, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as Exxon, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Yulong Petrochemical [49]. - Production and Consumption: The monthly output and apparent consumption will fluctuate throughout the year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and apparent consumption shows an upward trend [49]. - Inventory: The inventory of petrochemical plants, enterprises, and traders shows a certain degree of fluctuation, with both increases and decreases [49]. PE Weekly Fundamental Data - Price: The prices of PE futures and spot have declined, with the main contract L2509's price center moving down [11]. - Supply: The supply is abundant, with the weekly output increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 15th week is 15.9%. The operating rate of downstream industries has declined [10][11]. - Cost and Profit: The profits of oil - based and coal - based processing have decreased, while the cost has shown a certain degree of change [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of enterprises, society, and traders has shown a slight increase, and the trading volume has increased significantly [11]. PP Weekly Fundamental Data - Price: The prices of PP futures and spot have declined, with the main contract PP2509's price center moving down [51]. - Supply: The supply is relatively abundant, but the weekly output has decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 16th week is 16.3%. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to decline to around 76.5% next week [51][58]. - Cost and Profit: The profits of different production methods have shown different degrees of change, with the profit of PDH production showing a slight improvement [51]. - Inventory: The total commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, and trader inventory have all decreased, while the trading volume has increased significantly [51].
聚烯烃周报：油价反弹难敌基本面弱势，震荡偏弱-20250421
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-04-21 07:10