东方战略周观察：对等关税冲击越南外向型经济

Group 1: Trade Impact and Economic Data - In 2024, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are valued at $119.5 billion, accounting for 29.5% of total exports[1] - In January-February 2025, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached $19.56 billion, representing 30% of national exports, a 16.5% increase year-on-year[2] - The U.S. imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam, higher than most Southeast Asian countries[3] Group 2: Government Response and Market Adjustments - Vietnam has reduced tariffs on 23 categories of imported goods, with some rates lower than U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods[4] - Vietnam is negotiating to purchase over $90 billion worth of U.S. goods, including 250 Boeing aircraft and $6 billion in LNG[5] - The textile and apparel industry in Vietnam has a 40% export ratio to the U.S., facing significant pressure from tariffs[6] Group 3: Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Vietnam has restructured its administrative units from 63 to 34, aiming to improve governance efficiency[7] - The country is shifting towards a FOB production model to share tax burdens with clients and expand into new markets like Russia and Australia[8] - Southeast Asian countries are increasing energy imports to reduce trade surpluses with the U.S., potentially affecting OPEC+ pricing power[9]