铜铝周报：情绪有所缓和，铜铝陷入整理-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: China's Q1 economic data is good, but the impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain [4]. - Fundamental: The domestic copper concentrate processing fee is still negative. After the copper price fell from a high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 17, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 233,400 tons, with seven consecutive weeks of de - stocking [4]. - Overall Logic: The latest tariff developments between the EU, Japan, and the US affect the market. Market sentiment has eased, and the copper price may continue to rebound from a low level. The report suggests that for the SHFE copper 2506 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 78,500 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 73,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: China's Q1 economic data is good, but the impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain [6]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has continued to rise, and social inventories are in a seasonal de - stocking cycle. However, aluminum product exports have declined significantly, and domestic demand support needs attention [6]. - Overall Logic: After the US tariff increase was implemented, the bearish sentiment was released. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are not significant, and the price may oscillate and consolidate this week. The report suggests that for the SHFE aluminum 2506 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 20,300 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 19,000 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - Macro: China's Q1 economic data is good, but the impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain [8]. - Fundamental: Recently, domestic and foreign spot prices have continued to decline, and the exchange warehouse receipt volume has reached a new high. Some alumina enterprises have carried out production cuts and maintenance, but it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern of alumina, which remains in a slight surplus [8]. - Overall Logic: As some loss - making enterprises carry out maintenance and production cuts, the alumina futures price may rebound to some extent, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The report suggests that for the alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,700 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Copper Market: The average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Spot Market was 76,400 yuan/ton, with a change of +1,890 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month copper price was 9,188.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of +201 US dollars/ton. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt increased by 21,467 tons to 65,097 tons, and the international copper warehouse receipt increased by 12,485 tons to 11,930 tons [15]. - Aluminum Market: The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Spot Market was 19,890 yuan/ton, with a change of +330 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month aluminum price was 2,365.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of +5 US dollars/ton. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt increased by 12,769 tons to 92,475 tons [15]. - Alumina Market: The alumina spot price index was 2,888 yuan/ton, with a change of +17 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the active contract was 2,818 yuan/ton, with a change of +13 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - Domestic Market: China's GDP in Q1 was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% at constant prices and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% compared to Q4 of the previous year. The national economy started steadily and continued to recover [19]. - Foreign Market: On April 17, local time, the European Central Bank decided to cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points each. Since April 23, 2025, the eurozone deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will be reduced to 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% respectively. This is the 7th interest rate cut since June 2024 [21]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - Spot Market: The processing fee TC continued to decline [28]. - Futures Market: The net long position of COMEX copper decreased [31]. - Overseas Market: The US dollar index continued to weaken [35]. - Inventory: As of April 17, the copper inventory in major domestic regions dropped to 233,400 tons, with seven consecutive weeks of de - stocking. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased slightly to 78.07% [39]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - Domestic Market: The spot price remained at a premium [45]. - Foreign Market: The US dollar index weakened significantly [46]. - Inventory: The overall operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4% as of April 17. SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 61.8% this week [52]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit situation of electrolytic aluminum is affected by factors such as alumina, pre - baked anodes, and动力煤 prices [56]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - Spot Market: The spot price continued to be weak [60]. - Futures Market: The inventory futures remained at a high level [63]. - Supply and Demand: As of April 17, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 82.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.74% (- 0.75%). The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly by 5,000 tons week - on - week [66]. - Cost and Profit: As of April 17, the industry cost was 3,340.31 yuan/ton (+3.93), and the industry profit was - 456.43 yuan/ton (- 26.03) [69].