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食品饮料周报:3月社零环比回暖,内需关注度提升-20250421
Ping An Securities·2025-04-21 08:14

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34] Core Views - In March, retail sales showed a month-on-month recovery, increasing consumer demand focus. The retail sales growth rate in March was 5.9% year-on-year, up 1.9 percentage points from January-February, indicating a sustained recovery in consumption driven by previous policy stimuli. Looking ahead, the importance of domestic demand is expected to rise amid external demand disturbances, with consumption policies likely to be further enhanced to boost demand recovery [5][6] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.47% this week, with notable stock performances from Anji Food (+50.00%), Gui Faxiang (+14.58%), and Zuming Shares (+12.00%). The report emphasizes the resilience of essential consumer goods, predicting a sustained increase in attention towards these products due to improving consumer confidence and income [5][11] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The high-end liquor segment remains strong, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. The next tier of liquor, represented by Shanxi Fenjiu, is also recommended as it continues to expand nationally. For real estate liquor, companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiansiyuan are highlighted [5][6] - Kweichow Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The company aims for a revenue growth of around 9% in 2025 [6][33] - Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2024 is expected to be 173 billion yuan, with a net profit of 59 billion yuan, reflecting a stable shareholder return strategy [6][33] Food Industry - The food index saw a rise of 1.47% this week, with significant gains in essential consumer goods. The report suggests that the demand for essential goods will continue to grow, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving household income [5][11] - Anji Food reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84%. The company is positioned well in the frozen food market, despite facing some pressure from the macroeconomic environment [8][33] - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 125.58 billion yuan, a 45.34% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth in the functional beverage sector [8][33] Key Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai is recruiting operators for its products on major platforms, aiming to expand its market presence [16] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 11.1 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [17]