纯碱玻璃周报-20250421

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soda Ash: The supply - increase and demand - stable pattern continues. With the resumption of weekly production to a high level and stable demand, there is still pressure on soda ash enterprises to accumulate inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. The SA2509 contract is expected to find support around 1300 yuan/ton. Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds due to macro - positive factors or supply reduction can be monitored [5]. - Glass: The marginal change in glass supply and demand is limited. The large number of registered warehouse receipts suppresses the near - month price. The short - term market may continue to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies, and 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View Summary - Soda Ash: The device operating rate is 89.50% (+1.45%), weekly output is 75.56 tons (+1.78 tons). The apparent demand is 73.73 tons (-0.88 tons). The enterprise inventory is 171.13 tons (+1.83 tons). The price is weakly stable, and the futures price may be weak [5]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume is 15.85 tons, unchanged. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 6507.8 million weight boxes (-12.5 million weight boxes, -0.19% MoM, +9.94% YoY). The average order days of deep - processing enterprises is 9.3 days (13.4% MoM, -17.7% YoY). The price is slightly up, and the market may be weak [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Market Review - Spot Price: As of April 17, 2025, in the central China region, the heavy soda ash market price is 1400 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the heavy soda ash is 1550 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1450 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price is weak, and the glass futures price drops sharply [12][15]. - Market Review - Spread: As of April 17, 2025, the soda ash 5 - 9 spread is -39 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton MoM), the glass 5 - 9 spread is -28 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton MoM), and the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 192 yuan/ton (+41 yuan/ton MoM) [20]. - Fundamentals - Supply: Soda ash output is 75.56 tons (+1.78 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 89.50% (+1.45%). Some plants have maintenance plans. The float glass daily output is 15.85 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume is 96130 tons, both unchanged [28][32][43]. - Fundamentals - Inventory: As of April 17, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.13 tons (+1.83 tons). The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 6507.8 million weight boxes (-12.5 million weight boxes, -0.19% MoM, +9.94% YoY) [36][48]. - Fundamentals - Profit: As of April 17, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash is -60 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton MoM), and the theoretical profit of dual - ton combined - soda process is 154 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton MoM) [51].