新湖期货工业硅周报-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon industry continues to be in a situation of oversupply. In the short - term, the spot price of industrial silicon will maintain a downward trend. It is recommended to maintain a short position and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread. Before the wet season, attention should be paid to the changes in the downstream polysilicon start - up [58]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Policy and News - On April 10, 2025, the Administrative Office of Xing'an League, Inner Mongolia, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Anhui Xuhe Clean Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Honghe New Energy Technology (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. to build a 2 million kWh energy storage module PACK production base project with an investment of 200 million yuan [6]. - After the bankruptcy of SunPower in 2024, its brand name will be taken over by CompleteSolaria. In 2023, the company announced a cost - cutting plan including layoffs and sold some of its assets, including BlueRavenSolar, to CompleteSolaria for $45 million in 2024 [6]. - On April 17, the Energy Bureau of Shanxi Province solicited public opinions on the "Detailed Rules for the Development and Construction Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation (Draft for Comment)", stating three grid - connected modes for distributed photovoltaic power generation [6]. - Jiangsu Province issued a notice on the "Guide to the Major Science and Technology Special Projects in Jiangsu Province in 2025" and project application, aiming to improve the overall level of renewable energy technology [6]. - On April 17, the National Energy Administration released the issuance and trading data of national renewable energy green power certificates in March 2025. 174 million green certificates were issued, a year - on - year increase of 9.39 times, with 144 million tradable green certificates, accounting for 82.26% [6]. - On April 17, the Hainan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on promoting the high - quality development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, including establishing a simple and efficient management mechanism [6]. - In March 2025, the output of solar cells (photovoltaic cells) of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 78.44 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. From January to March 2025, the output was 172.67 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% [6]. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a tariff update guide, and although some media reported that "solar cells" were on the exemption list, after verification, solar cells were not explicitly mentioned [6]. Spot and Futures Prices - The price difference between high - and low - grade products converged, and the north - south price difference of high - grade products widened. The basis of the main contract expanded, and the monthly spread of the main contract this week was stable [11][14][17]. - The price of silicon raw materials such as silica and silicon coal slightly decreased, while other raw material prices remained stable. The electricity prices in major production areas were stable. Although the cost decreased this week, due to the decline in silicon prices, the industry's losses expanded [22][25][28]. Supply Situation - New production capacity was put into operation in the southwest this week, and some enterprises in the north were under maintenance. The industry's operating rate remained at a low level, and the output increased slightly month - on - month. There are still expectations of maintenance in northwest enterprises, and there are also plans for resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season [31][58]. Demand Situation - In the polysilicon sector, some enterprises were under maintenance, supply slightly decreased, profit and cost changed little, downstream rush - installation demand declined, and both futures and spot prices decreased. Silicon material inventory started to accumulate again [39][42]. - Silicon wafer production remained stable, inventory started to accumulate again, rush - installation demand declined, spot prices were unstable, and profits decreased [44]. - The fundamentals of the organic silicon industry weakened. Affected by tariffs, downstream demand was cautious in procurement, spot prices further decreased, and supply continued to tighten [46]. - The price of aluminum alloy was stable with a slight upward trend, demand was still resilient, and the operating rate slightly rebounded this week after a previous decline [49]. Inventory Situation - The industry inventory increased steadily, and inventory at all links increased, with a large pressure on digestion [54][58].