Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-21 08:54Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but the earthquake has affected production and transportation. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production, which is expected to ease concerns about the shortage of tin mines. Currently, the flow of tin mines in Yunnan is at a historical low, and the supply of scrap in Jiangxi is still restricted. The raw material structural contradiction is obvious, and the smelting start - up rate is lower than normal. The demand is in the traditional peak season. The development of the AI field drives the demand for electronic products, but the weak orders in the photovoltaic industry drag down the demand. Recently, the tin price has dropped, some downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, domestic inventory remains stable with a slight decline, and overseas inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 263,140 yuan/ton, up 6,890 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 30,643 US dollars/ton, up 157 US dollars. The closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai Tin is 28,778 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the futures of Shanghai Tin is 458 lots, up 1,626 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,850 tons, up 5 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 9,571 tons, down 806 tons. The warehouse receipt of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 9,183 tons, down 28 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 259,700 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 259,060 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 3,440 yuan/ton, down 4,290 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 249 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 277,500 yuan/ton, up 8,000 yuan; the processing fee is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 281,500 yuan/ton, up 8,000 yuan; the processing fee is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 169,290 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The LPR quotes are unchanged for six consecutive months. The Trump administration's tariff policies have severely impacted many small domestic enterprises in the US, and Trump's support rate on economic issues has hit a record low. Trump has pressured the Fed to cut interest rates and is discussing setting up a working group to deal with the tariff crisis with China. In China, the State Council is studying measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced the industrial development in the first quarter [3].