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股指期货策略早餐-20250421
Guang Jin Qi Huo·2025-04-21 08:54

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Financial Futures and Options: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable and improving, with strong economic resilience. Policy signals are positive, and after recent adjustments, the allocation value of the stock market has increased. The short - term view of stock index futures is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is accumulating strength for an upward trend. The short - term view of treasury bond futures is that short - term bonds oscillate narrowly and long - term bonds are slightly weak, while the medium - term view is bullish [1][2][3]. - Commodity Futures and Options: For copper, the short - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 75,200 - 77,300, and the medium - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 66,000 - 90,000. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and run at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term and fluctuate around the production cost in the medium - term [5][8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM - Short - term View: Oscillating and strengthening - Medium - term View: Accumulating strength for an upward trend - Reference Strategy: Go long on IM2505 at low prices with a light position. Buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options - Core Logic: The Q1 economic data shows stable and improving domestic fundamentals. Policy signals are positive. After recent adjustments, the stock market's allocation value has increased, and the performance of domestic AI chip design companies may drive the strength of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [1][2] - Treasury Bond Futures - Varieties: TS, TF, T, TL - Short - term View: Short - term bonds oscillate narrowly, and long - term bonds are slightly weak - Medium - term View: Bullish - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation purposes and wait and see for trading purposes - Core Logic: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain stable during the tax payment period. The issuance of ultra - long special treasury bonds is earlier than expected, and attention should be paid to the local adjustment risk of ultra - long bonds [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Short - term View: Fluctuate within the range of 75,200 - 77,300 - Medium - term View: Fluctuate within the range of 66,000 - 90,000 - Reference Strategy: Adopt a bullish trading strategy - Core Logic: There are macro uncertainties. In March 2025, copper imports and production increased. Although there are supply - side challenges, production remains stable. Demand shows a mixed picture, and inventory has decreased. The risk of the tariff war has been released to some extent, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved [5][6][7] - Industrial Silicon - Short - term View: Run weakly within the range of 8,600 - 8,900 - Medium - term View: Run at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,300 - Reference Strategy: Hold short positions of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures - Core Logic: In March, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased, but the demand decline was greater, and the inventory level was still high [8] - Polysilicon - Short - term View: Continue to decline within the range of 37,000 - 38,000 - Medium - term View: Run at a low level within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 - Reference Strategy: Hold short positions of PS2506 - C - 47000 - Core Logic: In March, the supply and demand of polysilicon both decreased, and the inventory was at a high level, indicating obvious oversupply [9][10] - Lithium Carbonate - Short - term View: Oscillate and decline within the range of 70,000 - 70,300 - Medium - term View: Fluctuate around the production cost within the range of 65,000 - 80,000 - Reference Strategy: Hold short positions of LC2507 - C - 83000 - Core Logic: The spot price is running at a low level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level within the year [11]