策略周报：季节性备货结束后，天气市继续压制盘面-20250421

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market shows a clear contradiction of oversupply and low valuation in the current stage. After the seasonal stocking, the weather factor will continue to suppress the market. It is recommended to short after the rebound and continue the JD59 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review - Egg Futures: Last week, the futures market showed concerns about the short - term spot price increase. The futures market was stagnant and needed further guidance from the spot market. Although the spot market may still have room to rise, the futures market has started to reflect the post - holiday spot price expectations. It will still take time for the market to break away from the bottom range [6]. - Egg Spot: Last week, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by downstream stocking, the spot price rebounded from the bottom and fluctuated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty. However, after the May Day stocking, the downstream market will return to weakness, and the weather will become the main factor suppressing the spot price [6]. 3.2 Supply Side - New - added Capacity: From March to June 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which remains at a high level and is higher than the historical average [10]. - Eliminated Capacity: From March to June 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [10]. - Laying Hen Inventory: The inventory remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new - added capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination volume is high, which may lead to a slowdown in phased supply [10]. 3.3 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens fluctuates at a high level, the elimination volume slows down significantly, the average elimination age is about 530 days, and the elimination enthusiasm is increasing [13]. 3.4 Market Factors - Seasonality: The seasonal strength - weakness conversion occurs, and the restocking demand is still the main support for the current market [15]. - Production Area: The inventory in the production area is not high, and purchases are made on demand. The future weather in the south is not conducive to storage, and quality issues will affect egg prices [15]. - Consumption End: After holiday stocking, the inventory has been transferred to the downstream [15]. - Substitute Products: Vegetable prices are weak, and the supply has recovered, so the support for egg prices has weakened; pork prices continue to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious; other meat prices have strengthened in the short term [17]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Raw Material End: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from the low level. Corn is supported by policy - based purchases, and soybean meal remains stable with a slight upward trend due to short - term spot shortages [22]. - Cost End: The cost continues to rise. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty [22]. - Breeding Profit: The breeding profit has rebounded, but it has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [22]. 3.6 Capital and Market Indicators - Capital Flow: After the rebound this week, funds left the market and then re - entered. The short - selling main funds exerted force again [25]. - Basis: The basis has fallen from a high level. The spot price has dropped significantly after the holiday, but the basis has stabilized and strengthened later, which is expected to provide some support for the market [27]. - Spread: With the rebound of the spot price, the near - term contracts are supported, and the spread has strengthened. In the future, the positive spread strategy will be the main approach [30].