大宗商品周度报告：流动性和需求均承压，商品短期或震荡偏弱运行-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, awaiting significant external and internal macro - events and policy drivers [1]. - Different commodity sectors show diverse trends. Precious metals are driven by geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying; non - ferrous metals are boosted by low inventory and demand expectations; black commodities are supported by inventory reduction and policy expectations; energy and chemical sectors face various uncertainties; and agricultural products are affected by international markets, weather, and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 0.40%. Precious metals led with a 3.64% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 1.25%, while black, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors declined by 1.42%, 0.66%, and 0.19% respectively [1][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, crude oil, and nickel had the highest gains of 4.45%, 3.85%, and 3.54% respectively, while industrial silicon, glass, and coking coal had the largest drops of 7.77%, 7.12%, and 4.42% respectively [1][6]. - The overall market scale increased slightly last week, mainly due to capital inflows into precious metals [1][6]. Sector - Specific Analysis Precious Metals - Gold reached a new historical high. Geopolitical risks, Fed policy uncertainty, and central bank gold - buying drove the market. Silver followed gold's rise due to industrial demand recovery. The market is dominated by macro - sentiment and geopolitical situations, with increasing capital inflows [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices hit a new high, driven by low global inventory, grid investment, and supply - side disruptions. Market sentiment is positive, and other varieties like aluminum and nickel also rebounded. Attention should be paid to external market trends, the strength of the US dollar, and downstream stocking rhythms [2]. Black Commodities - Steel prices stabilized, supported by faster inventory reduction, pre - holiday replenishment demand, and improved policy expectations. Iron ore prices rebounded due to steel mill restocking and production increase expectations. The performance of coking coal and coke improved, but overseas tariffs and anti - dumping pressures still limit export expectations [2]. Energy - Crude oil prices were consolidating at a high level after a previous sharp rise. The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risks in the Middle East and weak global demand prospects. Natural gas prices were weak due to seasonal demand decline and high inventory [3]. Chemicals - The cost - side support weakened due to the high - level oscillation of crude oil. Some polyester - chain varieties showed signs of stabilization, while basic chemical products like methanol and PVC had weak rebounds. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday replenishment and downstream production rhythms [3]. Agricultural Products - Edible oils rebounded due to the recovery of the international oilseed market and a slowdown in domestic crushing. Grain varieties were stable, and the prices of imported varieties like soybeans and sorghum are expected to rise due to policy - induced cost increases. Pork and egg futures continued to be strong [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total net value of gold ETFs increasing by 8.90% and the total net value of commodity ETFs increasing by 7.23%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs showed different trends [33].