棕油下挫、白糖上涨

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, while sugar is rising supported by strong sales and reduced imports. Pork prices are increasing as the May Day holiday approaches, and soybean meal is rising but its upside is limited by upcoming imports. Other products such as eggs, cotton, and corn also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has broken down, affected by seasonal production increase in the origin and improved domestic supply with weak demand [2][3]. - Production: In April 2025, the first half - month palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 3.97% month - on - month [3]. - Import: In March, the import volume was 168,244 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76.42% [3]. - Strategy: The support level is 8000, and the resistance level is 8130 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil first declined and then rose, with a volatile market. Tight current supply supports the price, but upcoming imports may limit the upside [4]. - Strategy: The support level is 7674, and the resistance level is 7766 [4]. (3) Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of sugar continued to rise strongly. Domestic sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly [6]. - Import: In the first quarter of this year, the import volume was 148,352 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87.6% [6]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level is 5963, and the resistance level is 6050 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal closed up with a volatile trend. Current supply tightness boosts the price, but upcoming imports will limit the increase [8]. - Basis: Last weekend, the basis of soybean meal in North China and Shandong regions soared, and the near - month basis in the north exceeded 750 [8]. - Strategy: Short - term trading. The support level is 3008, and the resistance level is 3070 [8]. (5) Eggs - Focus: The main 2506 contract of eggs declined with a volatile trend. Although the sales have improved recently, the high inventory of laying hens limits the upside [10]. - Strategy: If the price breaks below the 10 - day moving average, go short. The support level is 3021, and the resistance level is 3085 [10]. (6) Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounded with a volatile trend. The market is worried about tariffs, and new orders are weakening. The new cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase [13]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 12880, and the resistance level is 12960 [13]. (7) Corn - Focus: The main 2507 contract of corn rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering. The supply is limited, and imports have decreased sharply [14][16]. - Import: In March, the import volume was 81,003 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95.12%, the lowest level in the same period in seven years [16]. - Strategy: Short - term trading. The support level is 2280, and the resistance level is 2307 [16]. (8) Pork - Focus: The 2509 contract of pork rose strongly. As the May Day holiday approaches, slaughterhouses are stocking up, and the supply is relatively tight [17]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position on dips. The support level is 14385, and the resistance level is 14600 [17]. (9) Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounded strongly. The inventory is low, and the pre - holiday stocking is active [19]. - Strategy: Go long on dips. The support level is 7700, and the resistance level is 7957 [19]. (10) Soybean No.1 - Focus: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded with a volatile trend, boosted by the rise of related soybean products and the resumption of purchases by CGS [21]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 4100, and the resistance level is 4175 [21].