棕油续跌、红枣大跌 一、农产品板块综述 农产品板块周五大多下跌。棕榈油继续下跌，马来西亚 11 月高 频数据显示产量增而出口降，库存可能上升，棕油期价承压下跌，下 行空间或打开，后市料偏弱运行。红枣低位大幅下跌再创新低，因新 枣上市叠加陈枣高库存，供应压力令红枣扩大下行空间，后市有续跌 空间。农副产品生猪和鸡蛋仍处于跌势，因供应端存栏高企，需求端 没有亮眼表现，后市有续跌压力。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：继续下跌 （二）红枣：破位大跌 焦点关注：红枣主力 2601 合约低位大幅下跌创新低，受到供应 压力： 1.新疆红枣集中上市，在疆客商根据需求挑选合适货源进行采 购，样本点陈枣库存继续攀升，目前陈枣库存远超去年同期水平。销 区市场河北崔尔庄市场客商拿货积极性一般，广东如意坊市场客商对 一般货源接受度较差，下游客商按需拿货。随着新枣集中上市叠加陈 枣高库存，市场供应压力较大，且柑橘、坚果等替代品上市分流红枣 消费份额。红枣期价低位横盘后大跌创新低，走势偏弱。 2.红枣主力 2601 合约破位下行，跌破低位短期横盘区间，跌破 9000 整数关位，触及新低 8980，下行空间打开，策略上轻仓抛空。 数据来源： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oscillation, lacking clear short - term drivers. The geopolitical factor, especially the situation in the Caribbean and potential US actions against Venezuela, may become the short - term main line [1][3]. - The strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US, with the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may drive the upward movement of aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Some energy - chemical products are running independently of crude oil. For example, methanol is still under pressure from high inventory, but there is a mid - term long - making logic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil were caused by the continuous strengthening of refined oil products in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. Although the inventory is increasing, the market reaction is flat. The supply shortage of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. The geopolitical situation in the Caribbean is heating up, and the potential US action against Venezuela has not been priced in the market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strong performance of styrene is due to the improvement of short - term supply - demand after device maintenance and the blending oil logic driven by the strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US. However, there is a mid - term oversupply and seasonal inventory accumulation problem [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly level and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction of rubber is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started, and the focus is on the subsequent inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15200 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The focus is on the driving force from the cost side of butadiene, which also faces the problem of potential inventory swelling [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The contradiction in the polyester industry is not large. After the hype of production reduction news fades, the focus is on whether the blending oil logic can drive the upward movement. Also, pay attention to the geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 6745 [17]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, the focus is on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production reduction expectations [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4655 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues due to the commissioning of Guangxi Petrochemical and the increase in PP operation rate, and downstream demand is weak. The focus is on the cost - side driving force of crude oil [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The large - scale shutdown of Iranian devices has not occurred, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level, which suppresses the market. However, the domestic supply - demand structure has improved. The long - making opportunity depends on the implementation of Iranian gas restrictions and the market breaking through the pressure level. The geopolitical factor may also provide a long - making opportunity [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040 or take the initiative to stop profit. Try to go long after the short - term structure reverses [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from the real - estate industry is weak, so there is no upward driving force [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1195 [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure persists due to new capacity and high operation rate, and demand is weak. There is no upward driving force in supply - demand [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have declined significantly, while eggs have rebounded. Other products such as peanuts, sugar, and hogs continue to fall, apples are strong, dates fluctuate narrowly at low levels, and cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have declined sharply due to the possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict the import of raw materials for bio - fuel production, which pushed down CBOT soybean oil and led to the decline of palm oil. The trend of oils has weakened [1]. - Eggs have rebounded at low levels, but the weak supply - demand pattern has not been reversed, so the rebound space may be limited [1]. - Soybean meal has declined due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and rising inventory, and the weakness may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contracts of Dalian palm oil and soybean oil have fallen sharply, affected by the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict bio - fuel raw material imports weakened the previous positive proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia in the first half of November also pressured the price [2]. - The main 2601 contract of palm oil failed to break through, fell back to the previous consolidation range, and below the moving - average system. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [2]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded significantly at low levels, boosted by technical buying. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, the elimination of old hens continues but the speed slows down, and the demand lacks festival stimulation [3]. - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded from the low level, recovered the decline since the beginning of this week, and stood above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Peanuts - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continued to fall after the sharp decline the previous day. The effective supply in the producing areas has not been fully released, and the demand is sluggish [6]. - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continues the downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a new low. Globally, the sugar production in Brazil is strong, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere is also good. In China, the import volume in October was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The seasonal supply increase also pressured the price [7][9]. - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to fall to a new low, and the technical situation is weak. The strategy is to continue shorting with a light position [9]. 3.2.5 Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs continued to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply pressure is large as the inventory of breeding sows is still high, and the large - scale pig enterprises plan to have a high slaughter volume in November. The demand in the traditional peak season is insufficient [10]. - The main 2601 contract of hogs continues the downward trend, hitting a new low of 11,355. The strategy is to continue holding short positions with a light position [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal broke below the 20 - day moving average. The imported soybeans are sufficient, the oil mills have high crushing and operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. The downstream feed enterprises have general procurement [12]. - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has entered a downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [12]. 3.2.7 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples is strong. The apple storage work in Shandong and Shaanxi has basically ended, and the national cold - storage inventory is 7.7316 million tons as of November 19, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand may improve at the end of the year [15]. - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen at a high level and re - stood above the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold long positions [15]. 3.2.8 Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates fluctuates narrowly at low levels. The Xinjiang producing area adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises are reluctant to purchase on a large scale. The old - date inventory is slowly digested, and the new - date listing and high old - date inventory limit the rebound space [16]. - The main 2601 contract of dates has limited rebounds. The strategy is to conduct short - term short - biased trading and pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is nearly finished, the new - cotton processing volume has increased significantly year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has been growing. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the new orders are limited [19]. - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to whether it can overcome the resistance of the medium - term moving average [19].

策略建议：当前"强现实，强预期"背景下，操作上以逢低多为 主。需要注意的是碳酸锂仍处上升趋势，期价回调时勿逆势交易。 风险点： 碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂期货大幅冲高回落，主力 2601 合约较上 一交易日收盘价下跌 0.32%，报 98980 元/吨，盘中价格创年内新高， 总持仓量超一百万手。 核心逻辑：行情核心驱动为需求预期，碳酸锂动力电池与储能需 求旺盛。具体来看，动力电池因新能源车购置税减免政策退坡现动力 电芯抢装潮，预计 11-12 月新能源车渗透率预计升至 60%左右；储能 电池 2026 年装机增速预计超 40%，需求增量可观。叠加周度库存延 续去库，印证需求强劲。但近期则更多体现为资金面对价格的驱动。 技术面分析：今日碳酸锂期货整体持仓量有所下滑。碳酸锂主力 2601 合约今日仍是多头控盘，下午大幅减仓，多头离场，导致盘面 价格回调。当前 5 分钟级别周期为红线蓝带绿阶梯，预计短期或将震 荡运行，当前盘面剧烈波动，注意风险控制。隔夜 2 小时级别周期依 旧是红色阶梯线偏强，多空分水位 87220 元/吨。前期多单在 11 月 10 日 11：15 的位置，关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is still in a state of waiting for a change in one of the three drivers (macro, supply - demand, and geopolitics) to form a short - term logic. Geopolitical drivers may become the short - term main line, especially the situation in the Caribbean [1][3]. - The strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may have a positive impact on aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Different energy and chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on technical analysis [5][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation may gradually improve, but geopolitical risks in the Caribbean are worthy of attention. Wait for a high - shorting opportunity after the event [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Maintain an oscillating view, and the strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strength is due to short - term supply - demand improvement from device maintenance and the blending oil logic. In the medium - term, there is a risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly level, and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15,200 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Focus on the cost - end butadiene drive. Butadiene has a high supply and may face inventory pressure in the medium - term [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Pay attention to whether the blending oil logic can drive the price up after the hype of polyester industry chain production cuts fades. Also, focus on geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 6,745 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending oil logic and Caribbean geopolitical risks [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 4,655 [20]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: High port inventory suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for a long - position opportunity after the Iranian gas restriction and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to Caribbean geopolitical risks [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a take - profit of 2,040, or take the initiative to stop the profit. Look for long - position opportunities after the price breaks through 2,040 [28]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and there is no hope for demand. It is difficult to have an upward drive [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downward drive remains [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1,245 [41]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [43]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [43].

技术面分析：今日碳酸锂期货整体持仓量大幅增加。碳酸锂主力 2601 合约今日开盘大幅增仓上行，多头控盘。日内 9：10 有"三线 共振法"叠加成交量放量上行介入机会，绿星出现离场，给到了 1： 2 盈亏比。当前 5 分钟级别周期为红线红带红阶梯，预计短期或将偏 强运行，当前盘面剧烈波动，注意风险控制。隔夜 2 小时级别周期依 旧是红色阶梯线偏强，多空分水位 86580 元/吨。前期多单在 11 月 10 日 11：15 的位置，关注 8：30 早直播。 碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂期货再度强势拉涨，主力 2601 合约较上 一交易日收盘价上涨 6.18%，报 99300 元/吨，日内一度突破十万大 关，持仓量创上市以来新高。 核心逻辑：当前行情核心驱动为需求预期，碳酸锂动力电池与储 能需求旺盛。具体来看，动力电池因新能源车购置税减免政策退坡现 动力电芯抢装潮，预计 11-12 月新能源车渗透率预计升至 60%左右； 储能电池 2026 年装机增速预计超 40%，需求增量可观。叠加周度库 存加速去库，印证需求强劲。但近期则更多体现为资金面对价格的驱 动，推动涨势加速。 策略建议 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, palm oil prices broke through and rose, driven by the positive impact of the US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil. Peanut prices dropped significantly due to expected supply improvement and weak demand. The prices of two types of meal remained weak, and this trend may continue. Additionally, sugar, pork, soybean meal, eggs, and jujube prices were falling, while apples were in high - level adjustment and cotton had a technical rebound [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil broke through and rose due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil [1]. - Peanut prices dropped significantly because of expected supply improvement and weak demand [1]. - The prices of two types of meal were weak, with the increase in oil mill crushing volume and weak downstream demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Breakthrough and Uptrend - The US EPA proposed to set the 2026 biomass diesel blending target at 5.61 billion gallons, a 67% surge from 2025, which strongly supported soybean oil consumption and drove up palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil will enter the production - reduction season, and Indonesia will implement the B50 policy [2]. - The palm oil main contract 2601 broke through the recent sideways range and stood above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting an upward - opening space. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [2]. (2) Peanut: Sharp Decline - Due to busy farming and low temperatures, the supply of peanuts from Henan farmers was limited, but it is expected to increase after the farming season. The demand was generally low, with traders purchasing on - demand and oil mills not conducting large - scale acquisitions [3]. - The peanut main contract 2601 dropped significantly, breaking below the moving - average system and entering a downward trend. The strategy is to short with a light position at resistance levels [3]. (3) Sugar: Continuous Decline - Globally, Brazil's sugar production was strong, and the sugar production in the second half of October continued to grow. The harvest in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries started well, and India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In China, the import of sugar remained high, and the seasonal supply increased with the start of sugarcane crushing in Guangxi [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to expand its downward space. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [7]. (4) Pig: Narrow - Range Fluctuation at Low Level - The inventory of breeding sows was still higher than the normal level, and production efficiency improved, resulting in an over - capacity situation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in November remained high, and there was pressure from the release of additional supplies from secondary fattening. The demand during the traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and the cold - curing consumption was postponed due to the warm winter [8][10]. - The pig main contract 2601 fluctuated narrowly at a low level after a sharp decline, and the price continued to run below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position [10]. (5) Soybean Meal: Continuous Decline - The arrival of imported soybeans in China was sufficient, the oil mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean crushing volume last week exceeded 2 million tons. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons, and downstream feed enterprises' purchases were average [11]. - The soybean meal main contract 2601 continued to decline, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position [11]. (6) Apple: High - Level Adjustment - The cold - storage trading in the western apple - producing areas was basically stable, and the prices were flat. The demand for small apples in the Shandong producing area was active, and the prices were firm. The overall cold - storage inventory of apples was at a low level in recent years, and the supply of deliverable goods was expected to be tight [13]. - The apple main contract 2601 was in high - level adjustment, and the price was above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [13]. (7) Egg: Continuous Decline - The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level, resulting in sufficient supply. After Double 11, the sales of e - commerce and supermarkets declined, and the demand was weak. The elimination of old hens continued, but the growth rate of elimination slowed down, and the capacity reduction was slow [15]. - The egg main contract 2601 continued to decline, approaching the previous low. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [15]. (8) Jujube: Limited Rebound, Low - Level Fluctuation - The main jujube - producing area in Xinjiang adhered to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises were reluctant to make large - scale purchases. The inventory of old jujubes was slowly being digested, and the domestic sample - point inventory was much higher than that of last year. The market supply pressure was large, limiting the rebound space of jujube prices [18]. - The jujube main contract 2601 had a limited rebound and fluctuated at a low level. The short - term strategy is to short, paying attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. (9) Cotton: Technical Rebound - With the centralized listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory of cotton continued to grow, and the port inventory also increased with the arrival of foreign cotton. The textile industry was in the off - season, with weak domestic sales growth and limited new orders in the export market [19][21]. - The cotton main contract 2601 rebounded technically at a low level, driven by short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance of the medium - term moving average [21].

碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 今日碳酸锂期货冲高回落，主力 2601 合约较上一交易日收盘价 下跌 1.76%，报 93520 元/吨。 今日开盘延续昨日涨势，随后高涨情绪有所回落，持仓量大幅下 滑，多头资金离场，带动盘面价格回调。昨日受一则消息影响，有头 部厂商表示，"若 2026 年需求增速超过 30%，碳酸锂市场短期内可能 出现供需失衡，价格或突破 15 万元/吨甚至冲击 20 万元/吨"，引爆 市场情绪，碳酸锂强势上涨，包括主力合约在内的多个合约涨停，持 仓量创上市以来新高。 目前核心驱动仍在碳酸锂需求预期上，碳酸锂动力电池与储能需 求旺盛，具体来看，动力电池方面，2026 年新能源车购置税减免政 策退坡导致今年年末出现动力电芯抢装现象，预计 11-12 月新能源车 渗透率将进一步增长至 60%左右；储能电池方面，市场普遍预计 2026 年装机增速超过 40%，需求增量可观。同时碳酸锂周度库存持续加速 去库，也验证了需求端强劲。 碳酸锂当前仍处在上升趋势中，需要注意的是，目前期价虽然有 一定回调，但不要逆势交易。后续需要关注明年一季度淡季需求的表 现和枧下窝锂矿复产节奏。 碳酸锂 2601 ...

白糖大跌、生猪破位下行 一、农产品板块综述 周二农产品板块的农副产品及软商品走势偏弱，白糖大跌，因进 口糖增加及新榨季甘蔗糖开榨，季节性供应增加，白糖下行空间打开， 后市偏弱。生猪期价亦破位下行，跌破了横盘区间下沿位置，因供应 端生猪存栏、出栏高位，需求端腌腊启动滞缓，供大于求格局压制猪 价走跌，弱势延续。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）白糖：大幅下跌 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2601 合约在前日破位下行后继续大幅下跌， 受到供应压力： 1.进口糖仍偏高，海关数据显示中国 10 月食糖进口量为 75 万吨， 同比增长 39%，中国 1—10 月食糖进口量为 390 万吨，同比增加 14%。 同时广西甘蔗糖开榨，季节性供应增加，白糖期价承压大跌。 2.白糖主力 2601 合约在前日破位下行后转入跌势，周二大幅扩 大跌幅，展开下行趋势，策略上继续轻仓抛空。 （二）生猪：破位下行 （三）豆粕：冲高回落，继续下行 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2601 合约冲高回落，再度走弱： 1.国内进口大豆到港充足，本周油厂开机率提升至 66%，油厂豆 粕库接近百万吨的高水平，仍有待去库。下游饲料企业采购一般，豆 粕价格承压下跌。 2.豆粕主力 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking short - term drivers, with geopolitical drivers potentially becoming the short - term main line; some energy and chemical products operate independently of crude oil, and the blending logic may drive the upward movement of aromatic products; methanol has high inventory pressure but may have a mid - term long - making logic [1][3]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Logic**: Last week's large fluctuations were due to the continuous strengthening of European and American refined oil and the expected weakening in the EIA monthly report. Currently, short - term drivers have not changed significantly, and the supply - demand logic is not smooth. Geopolitical drivers are worthy of attention, and a short - selling opportunity may arise after the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Recently, it has been relatively strong, with the rebound logic including short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending logic. The mid - term is still pessimistic due to supply - demand surplus and seasonal inventory accumulation [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6400. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent, and it is necessary to track the inventory accumulation rate. There is no fundamental driver for now [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upward space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not large, and it is necessary to focus on the cost - end butadiene drive, which also faces mid - term inventory swelling pressure [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry chain's self - contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6715. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 4620. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure, with a short - term pressure at 6520. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the market, but domestic supply - demand structure has improved. Wait for long - making opportunities after the Iranian gas restriction is implemented and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to geopolitical drivers [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. There are signs of short - term stabilization. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040, and look for long - making opportunities after the price breaks through 2040 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with no upward driver due to weak real - estate demand [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level are in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental drive [39]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. Hold short positions on the remaining hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand, with no upward driver [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].