Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Under the easing of tariff sentiment and short - term strong fundamentals, crude oil is still in the rebound and repair phase after over - decline, and fluctuates with macro - sentiment in the short term. In the medium term, Sino - US confrontation is not expected to reverse completely, and the result of the US - Japan negotiation on tariffs is not optimistic. After the first - round sentiment release during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US recession trading may return. The Fed's hawkish stance and high interest rates are negative for risk assets. Regarding the Middle - East geopolitics around Iran, two rounds of US - Iran talks have ended, and the third round will be held this week. If the negotiation result is poor, the geopolitical impact may increase around early May [1]. - After crude oil turns bullish on the hourly level, short positions should wait for the small - cycle to break through. Today, it has not broken down. Most energy - chemical products are weaker than crude oil, with a bearish unilateral thinking [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Weekly Fundamental View: OPEC + will accelerate production increase in May, and Sino - US confrontation is difficult to ease in the medium term. However, short - term OPEC compensation cuts and new sanctions on Iran support the oil price rebound. The second round of US - Iran talks has ended, and the third - round information needs to be tracked [4]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated intraday today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning down, but the hourly - level has not broken down. The short - term support below is the low point on April 17th [4]. Styrene - Weekly Fundamental View: Although crude oil rebounds, the upside space is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak in the short term, lacking upward drivers. After the peak of maintenance ends and profits improve, the start - up of styrene is expected to increase, and the overall inventory is high, with supply - demand turning loose [7]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Styrene shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the structure has not changed. The short - term pressure refers to the high point on April 11th. Short positions on the hourly level should be held, with the stop - loss referring to the high point on April 17th [7]. PX - Weekly Fundamental View: Crude oil rebounds, but the upside space is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The weekly PX start - up changes little, but due to high US tariffs on China, a large number of textile orders from the US are on hold. The high polyester start - up is likely to decline in the future, which will be transmitted to PX [10]. - Daily Technical Analysis: PX shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is in the range from the high point on April 10th to that on April 8th. Short positions on the hourly level should be held, with the stop - loss still referring to the high point on April 17th [10]. PTA - Weekly Fundamental View: Crude oil rebounds, but the upside space is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The weekly PTA output declines month - on - month, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The short - term demand remains strong, but due to high US tariffs on China, a large number of textile orders from the US are on hold, and the medium - term demand is under pressure [13]. - Daily Technical Analysis: PTA shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is the high point on April 7th. Short positions on the hourly level should be held, with the stop - loss still referring to the high point on April 17th [13]. PP - Weekly Fundamental View: From late April to May, PP enters the industry's centralized maintenance season, and the start - up rate is expected to decline. The downstream demand is under pressure due to the end of the peak season and export tariff pressure. The cost side is under pressure as the upside space of crude oil rebound is limited [17]. - Daily Technical Analysis: PP shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the hourly cycle is still on a downward path. Short positions from last week should be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on April 16th [17]. Urea - Weekly Fundamental View: The weekly start - up of urea is 85.74%, remaining at a high level. The demand side enters the off - season of agricultural demand, the start - up of compound fertilizers declines, and the short - term demand is under pressure. Before exports are liberalized, the demand pressure is large, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [20]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Urea shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It declined with increasing positions today. The short - term pressure above is the high point on April 7th. Short positions from last week should be continued to be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on April 16th [20]. Methanol - Weekly Fundamental View: Under tariff pressure, the export demand of methanol's downstream terminal products weakens, and the MTO devices at ports stop, with a significant decline in demand. Although inland devices are under maintenance, the recovery of coal - to - methanol profits makes the on - time recovery of maintenance highly expected. With the confirmed recovery of Iranian devices, a large amount of arrivals at ports in the future is certain, showing weak supply - demand [24]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Methanol shows a downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the short - term is still on a downward path, but it is far from the pressure at the high point on April 7th. There is no trading opportunity on the hourly cycle for now [24]. Rubber - Weekly Fundamental View: The weekly fundamentals change little, and it follows tariff sentiment in the short term. The current spot price above 15,000 yuan is still at a high level in recent years. After the start of the tapping season in Southeast Asia, the supply is assumed to be loose. The domestic tire inventory is still at a high level, especially the semi - steel tire inventory has further accumulated to 45 days. With the high tire inventory, the start - up rate is likely to weaken. In addition, the RU - BR spread has widened to 3,500 yuan/ton, increasing the substitution expectation of synthetic rubber for natural rubber [27]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Rubber shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It rebounded with decreasing positions today but did not change the downward path. Short positions should be held, with the take - profit reference moved down to the high point on April 17th [27]. Caustic Soda - Daily Technical Analysis: Caustic soda shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, but the pressure at the high point on April 1st is far away, and it is difficult to have trading opportunities on the hourly cycle. However, there is a short - selling opportunity on the 15 - minute cycle today, with the stop - loss referring to today's high point [28][30] Ethylene Glycol - Daily Technical Analysis: EG shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today without a trend reversal. The short - term pressure is still the high point on April 7th. Short positions from last week should be continued to be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on the evening of April 15th [31] Plastic - Weekly Fundamental View: The upside space of crude oil rebound is judged to be limited, and the cost side is still under pressure. The peak season of plastic film has ended, the agricultural demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of agricultural film enterprises has declined, while the supply remains high, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [33]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today without changing the downward structure. Short positions should be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on the evening of April 15th [33]
原油仍处反弹修复，等待新一轮宏观驱动
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-04-21 11:37