股指期货日报：放量反弹-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view [6] Core View - The current bullish and bearish factors are domestic policy expectations and external tariff disturbances respectively. Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. The US tariff negotiations are not optimistic, with some countries taking a tough stance, while Trump shows an intention to ease tariffs on China. With overall positive news, the stock index rose generally today. Under the domestic and foreign loose expectations, the small and medium - cap stock indexes performed better and showed a unilateral upward trend. However, there are still significant external uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, and the historical percentile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is at a low level below 5% [6] Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index which closed slightly lower, the rest of the stock indexes closed higher. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 12.6749 billion yuan. In the futures index, IH declined with increasing volume, while the other varieties rose with increasing volume [4] Important Information - The LPR quotation in April remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.10%, the same as last time; the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.60%, also the same as last time. - Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the US [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | 0.66% | - 0.08% | 1.85% | 2.27% | | Volume | 7.751 | 4.2261 | 8.7317 | 22.2169 | | Volume change compared to previous period | - 1.855 | - 0.712 | - 1.0559 | - 2.5927 | | Open interest | 247448 | 81204 | 204265 | 317103 | | Open interest change compared to previous period | 532 | 1637 | 1584 | 819 | [7] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.45 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.27 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.99 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 104.1405 | | | Trading volume change compared to previous period (billion yuan) | 12.6749 | [8]