煤炭行业周报：气温升高有望需求释放，风险偏好降低凸显红利价值

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Rising temperatures are expected to release demand, while reduced risk appetite highlights dividend value [6] - The coal market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the coal sector outperforming the broader market due to high dividends and domestic demand [7] - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate narrowly, while long-term demand for thermal coal may increase with rising temperatures [12][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market saw more gains than losses, with the coal sector leading in performance [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% to 3276.73 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.59% to 3772.52 points [7] - The coal sector's weekly increase was 2.71%, closing at 2564.99 points, outperforming the indices [7] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have slightly declined, with increased port inventories due to weather disruptions [12] - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in southern power plants decreased to 1.765 million tons, down 9.1% week-on-week [12] - The average maximum temperature in 28 major cities rose to 23.6°C, indicating potential demand recovery as summer approaches [12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable with slight increases, supported by stable upstream supply and improved downstream demand from steel mills [29] - The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.58%, indicating stable demand for coking coal [29] - The price of Australian hard coking coal increased by 6.0% to $187.6 per ton due to supply reductions [29] Supply and Demand Structure - Northern port inventories of thermal coal increased significantly, with average daily inventory rising to 32.0758 million tons, up 206.58 thousand tons week-on-week [20] - The daily average consumption of coal in power plants remains high, but overall demand is weak due to reduced activity in non-electric sectors [21] - Coking coal inventories at independent coking enterprises increased to 8.3012 million tons, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [34] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at the Bohai Rim ports increased, with shipping prices continuing to rise [37] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou rose to 46 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan week-on-week [37] Industry News - Significant progress has been made on the coal transportation railway project in Jinzhong City, aimed at optimizing coal transport logistics [40] - The National Energy Administration plans to enhance virtual power plant capabilities to 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [40] - In March 2025, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 38.732 million tons [41]