黑色金属日报-20250421

Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: No clear indication [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: No clear indication [1] - Iron Ore: No clear indication [1] - Coke: No clear indication [1] - Coking Coal: No clear indication [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term bearish trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term bearish trend and the market is fermenting [1] Core Views - The overall market sentiment has improved, with the futures prices of various products showing rebounds or fluctuations. The market is mainly in a short - term volatile state, and the future trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade frictions [1][2][3][5] Summary by Product Steel - The rebar surface demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, with production slightly decreasing, inventory depletion accelerating, and the absolute value remaining low. The hot - rolled coil demand has improved, production has stabilized, and inventory has continued to decline. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The downstream industries such as infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, while the real estate sector remains weak. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand intensity and macro - policy changes [1] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment has slightly increased, and the domestic arrival volume has decreased but remains above the annual average. The terminal demand has resilience, and there is room for the resumption of hot - metal production in the short term. The market expects stimulus policies around the important meeting at the end of April. The overall trend is expected to be volatile, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - The intraday price has fluctuated upward. Affected by the tariff policy, the price follows the steel trend. The daily hot - metal production has slightly increased, and the coking profit has slightly risen after the first price increase. The overall coke inventory remains high, and the trade purchasing enthusiasm is low. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [3] Coking Coal - The intraday price has fluctuated upward. The coking coal mines have completed the working - face switch. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The overall coking coal inventory is basically flat, and the downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement. The Mongolian coal import situation is not good. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday price has slightly rebounded. Affected by the tariff policy, the price follows the steel trend. The absolute inventory level at Tianjin Port has increased, and the manganese ore price has declined. The hot - metal production has slightly increased, the supply of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday price has rebounded but remains weak. Affected by the tariff policy, the price follows the steel trend. The hot - metal production has slightly increased, the export demand has decreased marginally, and the metal - magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, the market transaction is average, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]