Biwin Storage Technology (SH:688525) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-04-21 12:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in "integrated research and packaging testing" storage solutions, benefiting from the restart of production cuts by major overseas manufacturers and the rapid growth in storage demand driven by AI, indicating a potential upturn in the storage industry [1][2] - The company has established a comprehensive and differentiated product system, with clear domestic replacement opportunities, and is entering a phase of accelerated performance growth and project implementation [1][2] Summary by Sections Company Expectations - The market perceives the company as a low-end third-party storage module manufacturer with limited growth potential. However, the upward storage cycle, accelerated domestic replacement, and rapid growth in AI applications are expected to enhance the company's profit growth potential [2] - Major storage manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have announced production cuts since late 2024, while AI is driving demand for high-capacity, high-performance storage solutions, indicating a price turning point in the storage industry [2] - The domestic willingness to adopt local storage solutions has significantly increased due to trade tensions, and the company offers a stable, high-quality product system [2] - The company is positioned in the supply chains of well-known AI/AR glasses manufacturers, which are expected to see significant sales growth in the coming years [2] - The company's C-end business has a clear growth trajectory, supported by strong brand recognition and consumer acceptance of domestic brands [2] Validation and Catalysts - Key indicators include storage product prices, the maturity and development of AI applications, AI glasses shipment volumes, the company's market share, and progress in its wafer-level packaging business [3] - Catalysts for growth include rising storage product prices, rapid growth in AI glasses shipments, and better-than-expected customer onboarding progress [3] Research Value - The report provides a deeper understanding of the company's competitive advantages, emphasizing the importance of integrated research and packaging testing for third-party module manufacturers [4] - The company is one of the earliest to adopt an integrated research and packaging testing model, which enhances product innovation, development efficiency, and quality assurance [4] - The company's unique firmware algorithms and self-developed packaging capabilities allow it to provide added value and meet diverse customer needs in niche storage markets [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 6.704 billion, 8.532 billion, and 10.864 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.71%, 27.26%, and 27.33% respectively [10] - The expected net profits for the same period are 176 million, 544 million, and 965 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated [10] - Based on a 2025 net profit estimate of 544 million yuan, a PE ratio of 95 is applied, resulting in a target market value of 51.7 billion yuan, indicating an 81% upside potential from the current price [10]