镜中泡沫：日本股市低利率时代的攻守之道（中）

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market during the low interest rate era can be divided into three phases: 1) Deflation Deepening Period (1998-2002): characterized by internal and external challenges, with a strong dividend style; 2) Reform-Driven Recovery Period (2003-2007): valuation re-evaluation driven by structural reforms and external demand, with performance led by external demand-sensitive sectors and certain financial and manufacturing industries; 3) Post-Crisis Era (2008-2012): crisis response and structural transformation, with telecommunications services and essential consumer goods showing relatively smaller declines [5][11][12][13]. Group 2 - The deflation deepening period (1998-2002) saw Japan facing internal and external challenges, with a continuous decline in actual GDP growth and a rising bad loan ratio in banks. The high dividend index outperformed the Nikkei 225 during this time, especially from 2000 to 2002 [11][41]. - The reform-driven recovery period (2003-2007) was marked by structural reforms and a rebound in external demand, leading to a significant recovery in the Nikkei 225. However, the high dividend index did not show significant excess returns compared to the Nikkei 225 during this phase [12][13]. - In the post-crisis era (2008-2012), Japan's market experienced a decline due to the impact of the subprime crisis and other external shocks. The high dividend index achieved excess returns primarily during the market downturn in 2008-2009, while sectors like telecommunications and essential consumer goods showed relatively smaller declines [13][49]. Group 3 - The analysis highlights that high dividend but deteriorating cash flow companies may face valuation collapses, emphasizing the importance of future certainty in dividend payments [9]. - In a long-term low-growth environment, the market gradually re-evaluates cash flows, with companies prioritizing debt repayment and cash accumulation over expansion, which supports cash flow improvement as a key factor for companies to navigate through cycles [10]. - The healthcare sector, driven by policy incentives and demographic trends, showed resilience during the deflation deepening period, with companies like Olympus Corporation experiencing a 115% increase in stock price from 1998 to 2002 [49][50].