W106市场观察：“平准基金”持仓详解和提振市场效果分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Central Huijin has been an important strategic force in maintaining the stability of the capital market since 2008. Its capital volume, increase direction, and rhythm have important reference value for market trends. The report details Huijin's holding characteristics and the positive impact on the market after its increase [2][18]. - The continuous increase of the "stabilization fund" has led to the large - scale development of domestic ETFs since 2024, and the scale of ETFs linked to the CSI 300 has exceeded one trillion [3][19]. - The increase in A - shares by Huijin has strengthened investors' confidence, brought follow - up funds, and substantially rebounded the overall market return. Historically, Huijin's announcements of entering the market have had a significant "bottom - voice" expected management effect, supporting the subsequent strength of the market [5][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Central Huijin's Increase Amount - From the Trillion - scale CSI 300ETF: Since 2024, significantly increasing ETFs has become the main form of the "stabilization fund" represented by Central Huijin entering the market. As of April 18, 2025, the scale of ETFs linked to the CSI 300 reached 1032.964 billion yuan, making it the first broad - based ETF variety with a scale exceeding one trillion. Since 2024, the scale of ETFs linked to the CSI 300, CSI A500, and CSI 1000 has increased by more than 100 billion [19]. - Total Market Value of Holdings as of the End of 2024: As of December 31, 2024, the total market value of ETFs held by Central Huijin (including Huijin Investment, Huijin Asset Management, and customized funds) reached 1.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.44 times compared with 2023 [22]. - Holding Structure and Increase Focus: Huijin's increase has obvious structural characteristics, mainly covering broad - based index ETFs, and spreading to industry - themed and style - based ETFs in the second half of 2024. For example, the holding scale of CSI 300ETF was 690.5 billion yuan, accounting for 65.6%; the holding scale of CSI 1000ETF increased from 5.32 billion yuan in mid - 2024 to 9.03 billion yuan, an increase of about 70% [24][25]. - Increase Dynamics of Central Huijin in 2024: In the second half of 2024, Huijin achieved a rapid increase through scale growth and policy support. The holding shares increased by 81.9 billion shares, corresponding to a market value increase of 462.5 billion yuan. The central bank provided a re - loan tool with an initial quota of 300 billion yuan at an annual interest rate of 1.75% [28][30]. - Recent Increase Dynamics of Huijin: In early April 2025, Huijin further increased its holdings. On April 7 and 8, the net inflow of stock ETFs in the whole market reached 171.595 billion yuan, of which CSI 300ETF contributed 94.079 billion yuan. The central bank clearly supported Huijin's increase [31][33]. - Fund Source of Central Huijin: Part of Huijin's funds for maintaining the stability of the capital market comes from its own funds, and it has also clearly obtained support from the central bank's re - loans [34]. 3.2 Subsequent Increase Trend and Possible Rhythm - Possible Direction of Subsequent Increase: Central Huijin emphasizes "firmly increasing ETFs of various market styles, increasing the intensity of increase, and balancing the increase structure", which helps the balanced development of the stock market of different scales and styles. Taking April 7 - 9, 2025 as a reference, broad - based and Hong Kong - related ETFs had the largest net inflows, and non - stock ETFs such as bonds and commodities also had considerable net inflows [35][37]. - Core Goal of Central Huijin's Increase: Huijin's increase has a dual role of stabilizing the market and long - term layout. The "stabilization fund"'s heavy - position floating - stock market value accounted for about 4.53% of the total market value of all A - shares at the end of 2024, which is within a reasonable range [44]. - Increase Rhythm: The intervention time of the "stabilization fund" does not follow a quantitative rule but has certain event - driven characteristics. Generally, when there are major domestic and foreign event shocks or capital flow fluctuations, the necessity and effect of the intervention are better. Overall, it has the characteristics of entering at the bottom and holding for a long time [45]. 3.3 Effect of the "Stabilization Fund" on Boosting the Market - "Boosting Market Effect" and "Signal Effect" of the "Stabilization Fund": The increase in A - shares by Huijin has strengthened investors' confidence, brought follow - up funds, and substantially rebounded the overall market return. Historically, Huijin's announcements of entering the market have had a significant effect on supporting the subsequent strength of the market [46][48]. 3.4 Market Observation: Institutional Holdings, Industries, Styles, and Themes - Institutional Profit - making Effect: Fund heavy - holdings underperformed north - bound heavy - holdings, and Shanghai Stock Connect heavy - holdings were relatively superior [6][53]. - Market Movement Speed: The style rotation speed continued to fluctuate at a high level [6][61]. - Industry Sector: The real estate sector led the rise, and real estate leaders significantly outperformed the industry benchmark [6][64]. - Style Tracking: High - volatility stocks led the rise, and low - valuation and super - large - cap stocks were superior [6][67]. - Theme Hotspots: The Yangtze River Rural Revitalization Index had a relatively high increase [6][71].