Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term trading in the live hog market is influenced by disease sentiment [1] - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, second - fattening starts, and state reserve operations support the downstream. Group farms are actively selling piglets, and there is no driving force for active selling of fattened hogs. Spot prices in April still have support. Near - month contracts follow the logic of basis convergence, and attention should be paid to whether far - month contracts trade based on the logic of an upward shift in the price center. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The support level for the short - term LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: Henan's live hog spot price is 14,920 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 14,710 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - Futures Prices: The price of live hog 2505 is 13,970 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; live hog 2507 is 13,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; and live hog 2509 is 14,555 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2] 3. Market Logic - Driving Factors: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, second - fattening starts, and state reserve operations support the downstream. Group farms are actively selling piglets, and there is no driving force for active selling of fattened hogs [3] - Contract Analysis: Near - month contracts follow the logic of basis convergence, and attention should be paid to whether far - month contracts trade based on the logic of an upward shift in the price center [3] - Support and Resistance Levels: The support level for the short - term LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of live hog 2505 is 4,002 lots, down 2,040 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 9,000 lots, down 999 lots from the previous day; for live hog 2507, the trading volume is 8,941 lots, down 60 lots, and the open interest is 34,785 lots, up 579 lots; for live hog 2509, the trading volume is 39,782 lots, up 3,276 lots, and the open interest is 79,537 lots, up 1,945 lots [3] - Price Spreads: The basis of live hog 2505 is 950 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live hog 2507 is 1,240 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live hog 2509 is 365 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 5 - 7 spread is - 290 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 spread is - 875 yuan/ton [3]
生猪：短期存在疫病情绪交易
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-22 01:46