国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250422

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the industries are rated neutrally, with some showing a weak or bearish tendency. Industries with a trend strength of -1 include asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, methanol, urea, and soda ash. Industries with a trend strength of 0 include rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, log, benzene ethylene, and LPG. The trend strength of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is not explicitly mentioned [2][12][15][18] Core Viewpoints - Different industries in the energy and chemical sector show various trends, including mid - term weakness, short - term oscillations, and price rebounds that are difficult to sustain. Market factors such as cost, supply and demand, and trade policies have significant impacts on these trends [2][9][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Trends: PX has a mid - term weak trend, PTA is mid - term weak, and MEG is mid - term weak with short - term rebounds [4][5][9] - Fundamental Data: On April 21, 2025, PX主力收盘 was 6110, PTA主力收盘 was 4350, and MEG主力收盘 was 4205. There were corresponding changes in daily and monthly differences [5] - Market News: In March 2025, South Korea's PX exports decreased, with a decline in exports to China and Unv1, but an increase to the US. PTA futures rose on the 18th, and an EO - EG联产装置 in East China reduced its ethylene glycol load [7][8] Rubber - Market Trends: Rubber is expected to oscillate. On April 21, 2025, the rubber主力日盘收盘价 was 14,795 yuan/ton, and the night - disk收盘价 was 14,575 yuan/ton [10][12] - Industry News: In March 2025, China's small - passenger - car tire exports increased in quantity but decreased in average price. In April, export orders were weak, and the export volume was expected to decline [13][14] Synthetic Rubber - Market Trends: Synthetic rubber is in a low - level oscillation. The current fundamentals drive the price downward, but the decline space is limited due to low valuation [15][17] - Fundamental Data: As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The price of butadiene in Asia weakened, and the supply of polybutadiene rubber was expected to increase [15][17] Asphalt - Market Trends: Asphalt is de - stocking again and oscillating with oil. On April 21, 2025, the炼厂开工率 was 32.87%, and the炼厂库存率 was 30.50% [18][29] - Market News: From April 15 - 21, 2025, the domestic asphalt production increased. As of April 21, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [29] LLDPE - Market Trends: LLDPE is in a low - level oscillation. The market price mostly declined slightly, and the supply pressure may appear in the third quarter [30][31] - Market Analysis: Trade wars increase uncertainty, affecting plastic product exports and polyethylene imports. The demand for agricultural films is at its peak, and the packaging film demand is average [30][31] PP - Market Trends: The PP price increased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The futures oscillated, and the spot market was mainly in consolidation [34][35] - Market News: The downstream new orders were insufficient, and the trading was mainly for low - price and necessary purchases [35] Caustic Soda - Market Trends: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased by 1.22% [37][38] - Market Analysis: Short - term replenishment led to a price rebound, but the low profit of alumina and high inventory of caustic soda cannot drive continuous positive feedback. The export can support the price, but the space is limited [39] Pulp - Market Trends: Pulp is in a wide - range oscillation. The futures slightly increased, and the spot market showed a pattern of stable softwood pulp and weak hardwood pulp [42][44] - Industry News: The white - cardboard market was weak, with sufficient supply and weak demand [45] Log - Market Trends: Logs are in a weak oscillation. In March 2025, China's coniferous log imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [46][50] - Fundamental Data: On April 21, 2025, the 2507合约收盘价 of logs was 811.5, with a daily decline of 1.3% [48] Methanol - Market Trends: Methanol is under oscillation pressure. The futures主力收盘价 on April 22, 2025, was 2,275 yuan/ton [51][52] - Market News: The methanol spot price index decreased. The overseas inventory was accumulating, and the 5 - 9 and 6 - 9 reverse spreads continued [54] Urea - Market Trends: Urea is under oscillation pressure. The short - term is expected to oscillate and be under pressure, and the medium - term is expected to oscillate widely [56][58][59] - Fundamental Data: On April 22, 2025, the urea主力收盘价 was 1,772 yuan/ton, and the开工率 was 84.91% [57] Styrene - Market Trends: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The strategy is to short at high prices after the rebound and compress the profit [60][63] - Market News: MX is stronger than other aromatics before May. After June, the pattern of MX may deteriorate. The inventory depreciation contradiction in the industry chain is severe [61][63] Soda Ash - Market Trends: The soda ash spot market has little change and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [64][65] - Fundamental Data: On April 22, 2025, the SA2505收盘价 was 1,289 yuan/ton, and the 05合约基差 was 61 [64] LPG - Market Trends: LPG is in a short - term oscillation. On April 22, 2025, the PG2506收盘价 was 4,375 yuan/ton [67] - Market News: On April 18, 2025, the expected Saudi CP prices for May and June were stable. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in China [74] PVC - Market Trends: PVC is in a weak oscillation. The export demand is affected by tariffs, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term [77][78] - Market Analysis: The high - production pattern is difficult to change due to the support of caustic soda profit. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the export sustainability is uncertain [77][78] Fuel Oil - Market Trends: Fuel oil has a short - term correction, and there is still support below [81]