Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and government bonds are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar requires temporary observation; iron ore is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner; coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a fluctuating manner [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for range trading; aluminum requires observation; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin and silver are recommended for range trading; gold is recommended to build positions at low prices after a full price correction [1][11][13][16] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to operate in a fluctuating manner; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][21][22][28] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply; apples are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner; PTA is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [1][30][31] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range; eggs are expected to weaken; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; oils and fats are expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [1][33][36][37] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as tariff policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external environments [5][7][11] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: Although the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, considering the pressure from the weakening of the export chain's production and sales, policies may be advanced, and the index futures may operate in a fluctuating manner [5] - Government Bonds: The market is affected by factors such as the central bank's interest rate policy, the performance of the equity market, and the shape of the yield curve. In the short term, the market may focus on supply and capital interest rate factors, and the curve may steepen rapidly under certain conditions [5][6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The macro environment is complex, and the industry's supply - demand relationship is changing. The short - term price is expected to operate in a fluctuating and weakening manner, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [7] - Iron Ore: The supply may increase in the later stage, and the finished product market has a negative feedback effect. However, considering factors such as the production of molten iron and possible macro - policy benefits, the 09 contract is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are in a state of weak balance in the short term, and the market trend is affected by factors such as the demand for terminal steel, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the profit of steel and coking enterprises [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The macro - environment is complex, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. The price may continue to change sharply under the background of Sino - US game, and it is recommended for range trading [11] - Aluminum: The supply and demand situation is changing, and the short - term macro uncertainty is strong. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy changes [13] - Nickel: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand relationships, the price has fallen close to the cost line. It is recommended to observe or short - sell at high prices [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended for range trading [17] - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as market recession expectations, tariff policies, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to operate in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended for range trading or to build positions at low prices after a correction [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term macro - environment has an impact on the price. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - Caustic Soda: The short - term price has rebounded due to the improvement of supply - demand, but the supply is still sufficient, and the sustainability of the increase is not optimistic [22] - Rubber: The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, tariffs, and the situation of new rubber production [24] - Urea: The supply is stable, and the demand has support. The short - term price may strengthen in a fluctuating manner, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [25] - Methanol: The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the macro - environment and production device maintenance [26] - Plastic: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to operate in a low - level fluctuating manner, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand, crude oil prices, and tariff games [27] - Soda Ash: The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [28][29] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by the USDA's supply - demand forecast and tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [30] - Apples: The inventory is low, and the sales are good. The price is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner, but it is necessary to pay attention to macro risks [31] - PTA: Although the supply - demand relationship is good, the price is affected by factors such as tariffs and cost reduction, and it is difficult to be optimistic [31][32] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price rebound is under pressure, but the decline is also limited. It is recommended to sell short - term out - of - the - money call options [33][34][35] - Eggs: The short - term price is supported by demand, but the long - term supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short at high prices [36] - Corn: The short - term price is affected by supply - demand game, and the long - term price has an upward driving force, but the increase is limited. It is recommended to buy at low prices after a correction [37][38] - Soybean Meal: The short - term supply - demand is tight in some areas, and the long - term price is expected to rise. Different contracts have different investment strategies [38][39] - Oils and Fats: The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level fluctuating manner. The medium - and long - term prices may first fall and then rise, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [40][42][44]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250422
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-22 02:50