Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" with a target price of 9.72 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.13 billion RMB and a net profit of 0.07 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.8% and 84.3% respectively. The net profit slightly exceeded the midpoint of the earnings forecast [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue was 1.05 billion RMB, with a net loss of 0.07 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.5% but a narrowing of losses by 0.02 billion RMB. The improvement in gross margin is expected to drive demand recovery due to policies like "old-for-new" [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company’s revenue from various segments was as follows: sanitary ceramics 3.49 billion RMB, leading hardware 2.06 billion RMB, bathroom furniture 0.79 billion RMB, bathtubs and shower rooms 0.34 billion RMB, and tiles 0.29 billion RMB, with year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -1.8%, +2.4%, -11.5%, and -33.3% respectively. The sales of smart toilets reached 1.19 million units, generating 1.52 billion RMB in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.2%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 gross margin was 22.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.2 percentage points [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 23.0%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 8.0%, 9.2%, 5.2%, and 0.5% respectively [3]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.1 billion RMB, down 55.9% year-on-year, but improved to 10.1 billion RMB in Q4, up 45.9% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced operating expenses [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.35 billion RMB, 0.42 billion RMB, and 0.49 billion RMB, reflecting upward adjustments of 9% and 10% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price is set at 9.72 RMB based on a 27x PE for 2025, indicating a potential recovery in demand driven by the "old-for-new" policy and an increase in the share of smart products [5].
箭牌家居（001322）：以旧换新显效果，期待盈利改善