近月仓单博弈，远期关注需求

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trading logic of black commodities since April has focused on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts, with the latter boosting the former [8] - There is still an oversupply pattern in coking coal and coke, and the long - term recommendation is to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [15][67] - The key to the far - end is whether steel can be "off - season but not weak", which depends on the real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, and export situations [48] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, the trading logic of black commodities was centered on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts [8] 2. Current Situation of Coking Coal and Coke 2.1 Monthly Supply - Demand Situation - For coking coal, from January to February, domestic skeleton coal production was 35.65 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The cumulative production of domestic mines and imports was 54.5 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.68%. From January to March, pig iron production had a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The supply - demand surplus pattern still exists. For coke, from January to March, the cumulative production was 123.267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, and exports dragged down the growth rate by 0.64% [15] 2.2 Coking Coal Weekly Production and Inventory - Coking coal production and imports are still increasing, mainly due to the resumption of domestic mines. Upstream inventory shows that domestic mines are flat month - on - month and high year - on - year, while port inventories are declining. Downstream coking coal inventory is generally low, and the recent replenishment is coming to an end [20][25] 2.3 Coke Weekly Production and Inventory - Coke production has increased recently due to improved profits and increased pig iron production. If a second price increase occurs, coking profits are expected to enter the 50 - 100 range, which is a high - valuation range [30] 2.4 Valuation of Coking Coal and Coke - The document provides data on coking coal and coke warehouse receipts and basis calculations from 2023 - 2025 [34] 3. Forecast of Coking Coal and Coke 3.1 Near - Month Warehouse Receipt Game - The current coking coal position is relatively high, but compared with history, it is not extremely high. The near - month delivery game of coking coal is at a critical point, and the coke warehouse receipt game is not intense [46][47] 3.2 Far - End Key: Whether Steel Can Be "Off - Season but Not Weak" - Real Estate: From January to March, real estate enterprises were still in the active de - stocking cycle. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of funds in place was - 3.7%, new construction was - 24.4%, and the inventory pressure was still there [51] - Infrastructure: From January to March, the cumulative infrastructure growth rate was 11.5%, and the monthly growth rate was 12.5%. As of last week, 2.6 trillion of special bonds had been issued, mainly for debt resolution, and the subsequent project funds are expected to have a small negative growth [57] - Manufacturing and Export: The Sino - US tariff conflict has led to a change in industrial behavior and pressure on total demand contraction. The US still accounts for a relatively high proportion of China's exports, and the market has become pessimistic about global total demand [60][62] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In the past two weeks, the core of trading was the coking coal warehouse receipt game and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts. In the long - term, it is recommended to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [65][67]