贵金属日评：特朗普持续喊话鲍威尔降息，美国与各国关税谈判进展不畅-20250422

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, a slight easing of the US ORt financial stress index, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 805.06 yuan/g on April 18, with a volume of 385,994. The spot Shanghai gold T+D's closing price was 803.87 yuan/g, with a volume of 25,222. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,341.30 dollars/ounce, and the London gold spot price was 1,62.50 dollars/ounce. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.29 tons, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 433.33 tons [1]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,247.00 yuan/ten grams on April 18, with a volume of 540,406. The spot Shanghai silver T+D's closing price was 8,227.00 yuan/ten grams, with a volume of 497,806. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 32.55 dollars/ounce, and the London silver spot price was 32.31 dollars/ounce. The US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,120.10 tons, and the Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,767.09 tons [1]. - Price Ratios: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 97.62, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 2.59, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 102.31 [1]. Important Information - Tariff Negotiations: Japan will not blindly yield in US tariff negotiations. Trump said the tariff negotiation progress was good, but the Mexican president said there was no consensus [1]. - Interest Rate Statements: Trump criticized Powell and demanded an immediate interest rate cut. Republican lawmakers supported Powell, stating that no president has the right to dismiss the US central bank governor [1]. - US Fiscal Policy: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut and a 5 - trillion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling over the next decade, in exchange for a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and September, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [1]. - Global Central Bank Policies: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates in May and 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly set up long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,050 - 3,150 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 720 - 740 yuan/g and the resistance level around 820 - 870 yuan/g. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ten grams [1].