债市周观察（4.14-4.20）：博弈LPR降息失败

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market fluctuates in the game of policy expectations, with market interest rates showing mixed trends last week. The 10-year Treasury yield has been oscillating narrowly between 1.63% - 1.67% after its central interest rate dropped from 1.85% to 1.65% at the beginning of April. The short - end interest rate has been slowly rising since April 11th. By April 18th, the term spread between long - and short - ends narrowed to a relatively low historical level of 20BP, and the yield curve showed a deeply flattened shape. The market's expectation of an LPR cut on the 21st led to a slight decline in market interest rates, but the LPR remained unchanged for the sixth consecutive month on April 21st, causing a slight correction in the 10 - year Treasury bond [1][19]. - The reasons for the non - reduction of the April LPR include: good economic and financial data in March, overseas tariffs turning into a long - term slow variable, and the Fed's interest - rate cut window not yet arrived, resulting in low urgency for a cut; continuous efforts of structural tools despite the absence of a comprehensive interest - rate cut, with the marginal loosening of the capital side; and the need to gradually relieve the pressure on the bank's liability side, as many banks lowered deposit rates on April 17th [2][19]. - The market may continue to oscillate narrowly in the near term, and the game of policy expectations will intensify as the April Politburo meeting approaches. Policy stimulus in promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing the real - estate market has begun to show results. The timing for a reserve - requirement ratio cut and interest - rate cut in the second quarter is gradually maturing. Reasons include the accelerated issuance of special Treasury bonds, which may create liquidity supply pressure and require monetary easing; major banks' reduction of deposit rates in April to prepare for a comprehensive interest - rate cut; and the pressure on the export chain due to US tariff hikes, which may lead to the Politburo meeting introducing consumption and real - estate - related measures, and fiscal stimulus requiring a loose monetary environment [3][20][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds Last Week Data Review - Funds Interest Rates: The funds interest rates remained generally stable, at a marginally loose, expensive but not tight level. DR001 rose from 1.65% on April 14th to 1.66% on April 18th, R001 remained stable at 1.67%; DR007 slightly decreased from 1.75% to 1.73%, and FR007 slightly decreased from 1.70% to 1.69% [9]. - Open Market Operations: The central bank's reverse - repurchase injected 808 billion yuan of funds last week, with a total maturity of 474.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 333.8 billion yuan, reversing the continuous net withdrawal of the previous month [9]. - Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison: The inversion of the Sino - US bond interest - rate spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate rose slightly from 4.11% on April 14th to 4.13% on April 18th, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate slightly decreased from 1.79% to 1.77%. By April 18th, the 6 - month interest - rate spread between China and the US was - 235BP, and the spreads for the 2 - year and 10 - year bonds were - 236BP and - 269BP respectively, with the inversion of both short - and long - end spreads widening [14]. - Term Spread: The term spreads of both Chinese and US bonds continued to shrink. The 10 - 2 - year spread of Chinese bonds compressed to 20BP, and that of US bonds decreased to 53BP [14]. - Interest Rate Term Structure: The yield curve of Chinese bonds flattened, with a relatively large increase in the short - end; the change in the US bond yield decreased overall, the curve flattened, and the long - end declined slightly more [15].