每日投资策略-20250422

Macro Economic Overview - The US retail sales rebounded in March due to preemptive purchases driven by tariff concerns, particularly in durable goods like automobiles and appliances, while home improvement and online shopping saw declines, indicating persistent high interest rates and inflation expectations suppressing housing demand and discretionary spending [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks acknowledged the dilemma posed by stagflation risks, denying the existence of a Fed Put, and placing the responsibility for stabilizing financial markets on the White House [2] - The White House has adjusted its strategy in response to market volatility, delaying "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners outside of China and initiating negotiations with allies, aiming to balance market stability and tariff agendas [2] Company Analysis SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) - Projected net profit for 2024 is RMB 5.97 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations, with a proposed dividend payout ratio of 51%, the highest since 2017 [5] - Focus on emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, while maintaining caution towards the US and European markets due to geopolitical factors [5] - Target price raised to RMB 22 based on a 24x target P/E ratio, reflecting the upward profit cycle [5] Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - Expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1.63 billion, a 13% decline year-on-year, significantly below expectations due to preemptive inventory movements to avoid tariff impacts and increased costs from acquisitions [5] - The company anticipates sufficient inventory to meet US demand until September, but remains cautious about unpredictable US tariff policies affecting demand [5] - Target price lowered to RMB 44 based on a 12x 2025 P/E ratio, reflecting a slowdown in earnings [5] Xtep (1368 HK) - Retail sales growth in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a cautious outlook for Q2, influenced by potential impacts from the US-China trade war and expected benefits from consumer downgrading [6][7] - Strong performance in e-commerce sales, exceeding 20% growth, while offline sales showed low single-digit growth [7] - Target price maintained at HKD 7.20, with a buy rating, as the company is expected to benefit from policy support in the sportswear sector [8] iQIYI (IQ US) - Anticipated total revenue for Q1 2025 is RMB 7.08 billion, an 11% year-on-year decline but a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with consensus expectations [9] - Operating profit is expected to grow 6% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 430 million, though below consensus due to increased investments in micro-drama content [9] - Target price adjusted to USD 2.60 based on a 13x FY25 P/E ratio, maintaining a buy rating [9] Boss Zhipin (BZ US) - Recognized as China's largest online recruitment platform, with a projected 10% CAGR in total revenue from FY25-27 driven by online penetration and recovery in white-collar recruitment [9] - Expected adjusted operating profit CAGR of 20% over the same period, initiating coverage with a buy rating and a target price of USD 19.5 based on a 20x FY25E P/E [9] InnoScience (2577 HK) - Leading player in the GaN power semiconductor industry with a 33.7% market share in 2023, focusing on design, development, and manufacturing of GaN products [9] - Projected revenue CAGR of 55.2% from 2024-27, with expectations of breakeven in gross and net margins by 2025 and 2027 respectively [9] - Initiating coverage with a buy rating and a target price of HKD 49 based on a 30x 2030 P/E [9]