野村：日本股票投资策略- 关税可能导致盈利下滑，但预计 2026 财年起将恢复正常

Investment Rating - The report has lowered its forecasts for the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 to 2,700 and 36,000 for end-2025, and 2,900 and 39,000 for end-2026, reflecting the impact of tariffs and other factors [2][70]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 14% dent in TOPIX EPS due to tariffs, with an overall decline of approximately 7% in FY25, but expects normalization from FY26 [1][27]. - The sectors favored for investment include electric appliances & precision instruments, banks, construction, real estate, and land transportation, with longer-term themes focusing on 100-year firms, safety & security, and content [2][77]. - The report highlights that the deterioration in earnings has largely been priced in, as evidenced by a 21% decline in the TOPIX between March 26 and April 7 [1][27]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - Earnings downside appears to have been priced in significantly, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on earnings and market sentiment [9][1]. - The report notes that the revision index for analysts' forecasts has just started to be revised down, indicating potential further declines in earnings expectations [15][28]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Nonfinancial corporations have been the largest buyers of Japanese equities, while nonresident investors have been significant sellers, particularly through futures [31][35]. - The report indicates that share buybacks are expected to tighten equity supply-demand conditions over the long term [2][70]. Valuation and Sentiment - The report identifies considerable pessimism in the market, with the weighted DI in the QUICK Monthly Market Survey showing the highest level of pessimism since August 2020, which is viewed as a contrarian indicator [49][50]. - Current valuations show a 12-month forward P/E of over 13x, a P/B of over 1.2x, and a dividend yield of 2.8%, suggesting some support from undervaluation [56][57]. Economic Policy and Forecasts - The report emphasizes low policy uncertainty in Japan compared to the US and Europe, which is expected to provide reassurance to global investors [59][60]. - The forecast for TOPIX EPS is projected to fall from 179 in FY24 to 167 in FY25, with a return to growth expected from FY26 [72][69].