华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250422

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated in a narrow range. The central bank made a net injection of 23.38 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Weekly Macro and News: Domestically, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy for Upgrading Free Trade Pilot Zones", aiming to comprehensively improve the institutional opening-up level, systematic reform effectiveness, and quality of the open economy in free trade pilot zones through about five years of pioneering and integrated exploration. Internationally, Apollo Global Management's Chief Economist, Torsten Sløk, warned that Trump's tariffs have significantly increased the risk of an economic recession this year, with the probability rising to 90% [4]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - Price Trend: Last week, Treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The TS2506 contract closed at 102.432, down 0.20%; the TF2506 contract closed at 106.23, down 0.16%; the T2506 contract closed at 109.025, up 0.07%; and the TL2506 contract closed at 119.7, up 0.14% [5]. 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - Yield Changes: Last week, long-term interest rates slightly declined, and the yield spread narrowed [8]. 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Arbitrage Opportunities: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - TF - T Spread: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [12]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - Term Structure Changes: The Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 14th, and the yield has increased [17].