公用事业行业月度跟踪：基本面反转+需求刚性+低配，电力有望脱颖而出

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The power sector is expected to stand out due to fundamental reversals, rigid demand, and low allocation [1][8] - The electricity market has shown improvements with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in March, and a narrowing decline in thermal power generation [8][19] - The report emphasizes that the electricity sector is transitioning from a weak dividend to a strong dividend phase, with significant improvements in earnings per share (EPS) expectations [8] Summary by Sections Electricity Demand - In the first three months of 2025, the total electricity consumption increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2022 to 2025 [19] - The electricity consumption for the secondary industry grew by 1.9% year-on-year, while the primary and tertiary industries saw increases of 8.7% and 5.2%, respectively [27] Installed Capacity - In January and February 2025, a total of 55 GW of new capacity was added, with wind and solar accounting for 49 GW [19] - The share of thermal power in total installed capacity has decreased to 43% [19] Energy Prices - The report notes a slight increase in capacity prices, with a year-on-year rise of 23.3% in some provinces, while energy prices have significantly decreased [8][19] - The latest coal price is reported at 663 CNY per ton, down 163 CNY per ton year-on-year [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment combinations: 1. A defensive combination of stable dividend assets in hydropower and regional comprehensive energy [8] 2. An elastic thermal power combination that benefits from low coal prices [8] 3. A green energy offensive combination driven by policy support [8]