Minsheng Securities·2025-04-22 07:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the express delivery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a robust growth in March 2025, with a business volume increase of 20.3% year-on-year, and a revenue growth of 10.4% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a cumulative business volume of 451.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6%, while total revenue reached 345.64 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the resilience of demand in the express delivery sector, driven by trends such as the increasing demand for small parcels and the growth of reverse logistics [4]. - Price competition is intensifying in the industry, but the report suggests that the severity of this "price war" is manageable due to regulatory guidance aimed at promoting long-term high-quality development [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In March 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.66 billion pieces, generating revenue of 124.6 billion yuan [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw major companies like SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express report revenues of 51.809 billion, 15.441 billion, 12.016 billion, and 11.824 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 14.1%, 10.6%, and 18.7% [3]. Company Performance - In March 2025, the business volume for major companies was as follows: SF Express at 1.295 billion pieces (+25%), YTO Express at 2.665 billion pieces (+23%), Yunda Express at 2.253 billion pieces (+17%), and Shentong Express at 2.085 billion pieces (+20%) [2]. - The average revenue per piece for these companies showed a decline, with SF Express at 13.82 yuan (-11.8%) and YTO Express at 2.18 yuan (-7.4%) [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and emerging demands from lower-tier markets [4]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery space, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [4].