3月财政数据点评：收入降幅收窄，支出持续提高

Revenue Insights - The fiscal revenue growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is -1.1%, showing an improvement from the previous decline, primarily due to the accelerated recovery of the economic fundamentals[3] - Total public budget revenue reached 6.02 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 27.4%, indicating a neutral to fast performance over five years[11] - Tax revenue growth rate is -3.5%, but the decline has narrowed, while non-tax revenue growth is 8.8%, showing a decrease from previous values[15] Expenditure Insights - Public budget expenditure growth rate for the first quarter is 4.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, with a completion rate of 24.52%[4] - Central government expenditure growth is at 8.9%, while local government expenditure growth is 3.6%, indicating a significant focus on central spending[4] - Social security and employment expenditure growth reached 7.9%, while infrastructure spending remains low, indicating a need for increased investment in this area[48] Fund Revenue and Debt Insights - Land transfer revenue growth is -15.9%, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market, which negatively impacts government fund revenue, recorded at -11%[73] - The issuance progress of new special bonds by local governments is slow, with a completion rate of 21.8%[73] - The government plans to increase the total new debt scale by 2.9 trillion yuan in 2025, with measures including raising the deficit scale and issuing special bonds[5] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive in response to external shocks, particularly due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration[5] - Continued fiscal spending is anticipated to support macroeconomic recovery as the government aims to accelerate expenditure and expand special bonds[81]