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石油石化行业：美国天然气期货价跌，液化气库存上升
Dongxing Securities·2025-04-22 09:26

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [3][35]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices continue to decline month-on-month, while UK and US natural gas futures prices have also decreased. In contrast, Canadian natural gas futures prices have risen [2][3]. - China's natural gas production in March decreased by 0.50% month-on-month, with a total output of 590,000 tons. Meanwhile, the apparent consumption of natural gas in December increased by 7.54% month-on-month [13][14]. - European natural gas imports in March increased by 2.42% month-on-month, but imports from Russia saw a significant decline of 19.93% month-on-month and 59.41% year-on-year [20][24]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - As of April 11, domestic LNG ex-factory price was 4,552.00 CNY/ton, down 0.81% month-on-month but up 13.54% year-on-year. The US NYMEX natural gas futures price was $3.54 per million British thermal units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 18.49% but a year-on-year increase of 100.17% [7][9]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in March was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous month. The apparent consumption in December was 36.987 billion cubic meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 7.54% [13][14]. Inventory - As of April 11, US LNG/LPG inventory (excluding propane/propylene) was 130,131 thousand barrels, up 9.58% month-on-month. In contrast, European natural gas inventory was 39.663 billion kilowatt-hours, down 4.50% month-on-month [16][19]. Imports and Exports - In March, Europe’s total natural gas imports were 170,800.65 million cubic meters, up 2.42% month-on-month, while imports from Russia were 8,793.40 million cubic meters, down 19.93% month-on-month and 59.41% year-on-year. China's natural gas imports in March were 9.158 million tons, down 20.77% month-on-month and 14.88% year-on-year [20][25].