阶段性需求，盘面弹性不足

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea remain weak, with limited incremental industrial demand. The futures market has a phased rebound, but the upside space is insufficient, and the medium - term logic remains weak [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea's main contract rose slightly on the day, while the spot market price continued to be weak. The demand activity was low, providing little support for the market. The futures may see a slight improvement in sentiment tomorrow. - On the supply side, the daily output fluctuated narrowly. From this week to May, more urea factories will resume production than have temporary inspections, so the daily supply may continue to rise, suppressing the market. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is sporadic. The next agricultural demand may be for summer fertilizer preparation in May, currently providing weak demand support. The main buyers are compound fertilizer factories and other industrial rigid - demand buyers. The decline in the operating load of compound fertilizer factories has slowed down. Spring fertilizer production is coming to an end, and North China's summer fertilizer production is expected to start soon, with a tendency to purchase, but the incremental demand is expected to be limited. Overall demand is weak, and although there will be some final purchases in the Northeast, the price boost will be limited under high supply. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory this period, indicating insufficient overall downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1756 yuan/ton and trended lower during the day, then rebounded slightly and finally closed at 1783 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 196,655 lots (+123,957 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 12,015 lots, and short positions increased by 11,229 lots. Donghai Futures' net long positions increased by 3,389 lots, Guantong Futures' net long positions increased by 3,688 lots; Yingda Futures' net short positions increased by 2,950 lots; Zhongrong Huixin's net short positions increased by 3,459 lots [2]. Spot - The spot market price continued to be weak, with low demand activity and little support for the market. The futures rebounded slightly today, and sentiment may improve slightly tomorrow. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1770 - 1810 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices; the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi is 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of large - particle urea has dropped to 1725 - 1760 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On April 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,260, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price rose. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the September contract was 57 yuan/ton (-33 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on April 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 197,200 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.54% [10].