黑色产业数据每日监测-20250422

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel inventory is still being depleted, and apparent demand has increased month-on-month, but steel mills are actively producing, and the real estate downturn cycle continues to drag down. The steel futures market lacks effective rebound momentum, and negative impacts may gradually materialize. It is recommended to short on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, most black commodity futures were weak, with only iron ore barely rising. Rebar closed at 3,075 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; hot-rolled coil futures closed at 3,171 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; iron ore futures closed at 711.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; coking coal and coke led the decline in the black series [1] Market Analysis Supply - Steel mills are still actively producing. Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long-process steel mills was 54.98%, a month-on-month increase of 1.30 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.28% to 83.56%, and the ironmaking capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04% to 90.15%. Daily pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.4012 million tons, ending a 7-week consecutive increase, and was 1.39 million tons higher than the same period last year. Rebar production fell to 2.2922 million tons, wire rod production increased by 3.31%, hot-rolled and medium-thick plate production increased slightly, and cold-rolled production decreased slightly [1] Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, decreasing by 759,300 tons month-on-month to 15.8468 million tons, the lowest in over two months, and the month-on-month decline rate rebounded to 4.57%. Among them, rebar inventory continued to decrease by 5.73% to 7.3316 million tons, wire rod inventory was 1.244 million tons, a decrease of 14.31%, hot-rolled and medium-thick plate inventory also decreased month-on-month, and cold-rolled inventory continued to increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 5.34% month-on-month to 9.4864 million tons. Only cold-rolled apparent demand decreased slightly month-on-month. Rebar apparent demand increased by 8.37% month-on-month to 2.7382 million tons but remained at a low level in the same period in recent years. Wire rod apparent demand increased significantly by 18.83% to 1.0745 million tons, slightly exceeding last year's level, and hot-rolled apparent demand also increased by 2.8% [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply-demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a sideways trading strategy in the short term and monitor the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high-level consolidation strategy in the short term and monitor supply-demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1]