黑色金属日报-20250422

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ indicates a slightly bullish/bearish view with weak trading operability [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ suggests a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability [1] - Coke: ★☆★ - Coking Coal: ★☆★ - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆ represents a clear bearish/bullish trend with an ongoing market movement [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★☆ Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. The cost side of carbon elements is declining, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, inventory, and demand. Different varieties have different trends, mainly including weak trends for steel, coke, and coking coal, and a sideways trend for iron ore [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Performance: The steel futures market is weak today. Thread steel's apparent demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, but its sustainability is uncertain. Hot - rolled coil demand has improved, and inventory has continued to decline [1] - Supply and Demand: The production of thread steel has decreased slightly, and the inventory has been depleted faster. The production of hot - rolled coil has stabilized. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down [1] - Downstream Industries: Infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, and the decline in real - estate sales and new construction has narrowed marginally but remains weak. Exports are affected by US tariff hikes, and domestic demand policies need to be strengthened [1] - Outlook: The market outlook is pessimistic, and the weak market situation is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the intensity of peak - season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro - policies [1] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore futures market is oscillating today [2] - Supply: Global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, and domestic arrivals have decreased this period but remain above the annual average. Port inventory has been significantly depleted, and there is a seasonal growth expectation [2] - Demand: Terminal demand is resilient, steel mills have certain profits, and the resumption of hot - metal production has slowed but still has room for further growth [2] - Outlook: The overall trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillating, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - Market Performance: The coke price has oscillated downward today [3] - Supply and Demand: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and coke production has also increased slightly after the first price increase. The overall inventory depletion is poor, and the inventory remains high [3] - Outlook: The coke futures premium has been compressed, and the price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [3] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal price has oscillated downward today [5] - Supply and Demand: Due to individual accidents and working - face switching, the production has been affected. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory is basically flat, and downstream purchases are for rigid demand. Imported Mongolian coal transactions are weak [5] - Outlook: The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production may reach its peak. The price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [5] Silicon Manganese - Market Performance: The silicon manganese price has declined today [6] - Supply and Demand: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Manganese ore port inventory has been increasing, and the price of manganese ore has declined. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased slightly from a high level. The overall inventory has increased significantly [6] - Outlook: It is recommended to short on rebounds as the manganese ore inventory is increasing [6] Silicon Iron - Market Performance: The silicon iron price has declined today [7] - Supply and Demand: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, export demand has decreased marginally, and metal magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased [7] - Outlook: It is recommended to short on rebounds due to its weak fundamentals [7]