Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure on apparent profits due to impairment provisions in Q4 2024, with a projected revenue of 9.464 billion and a net profit of 44.45 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.49% and 81.11% respectively [1][4]. - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms in 2025, focusing on product and channel adjustments to enhance operational quality and meet diverse consumer demands [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.464 billion, down 6.49% year-on-year, with a net profit of 44.45 million, a significant drop of 81.11% [5]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 9.00% and 0.47%, respectively, showing a decline of 1.74 and 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Sales Performance - The company’s liquor revenue in 2024 was 8.760 billion, a decrease of 6.77% year-on-year, with sales volume at 7,923.96 thousand liters, down 2.05% [1][2]. - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, particularly in 2024, with a contribution of 2.092 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72.87% [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 9.910 billion, 10.670 billion, and 11.192 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 130.60 million, 177.30 million, and 234.47 million, indicating substantial recovery with growth rates of 193.84%, 35.76%, and 32.24% respectively [4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 222.16 million, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 51.00, 37.57, and 28.41 respectively, indicating a potential for improved valuation as profits recover [5].
华致酒行（300755）：24Q4计提减值表观利润承压，25年期待公司全方位改革成效